檢定股利與負債的預測模式－抵換理論與融資順位理論

Testing the Predictive Models of Dividends and Debt: Tradeoff and Pecking Order Theory

10.6656/MR.2003.22.1.CHI.25

詹家昌(Chia-Chung Chan)；徐民欣(Min-Hsin Hsu)

抵換理論 ； 融資順位理論 ； tradeoff theory ； pecking order theory

管理評論

22卷1期（2003 / 01 / 01）

25 - 52

繁體中文

本文主要目的係檢定靜態抵換理論與融資順位理論對股利與負債的預測，且將檢定重點放在公司獲利、投資機會及盈餘和現金流量的波動上。由於公司股利決策與融資決策有其相關性，因此對其做一檢定除了有助於瞭解企業決策的關連外，亦有助於實證結果的確認。尤其公司的融資與股利決策有其長期趨勢，因此除了擴大樣本期間與適當的樣本分類外，本文以Newey and West(1987)與Fama and MacBoth(1973)所採取的方法加以實證與比較，結果發現考慮時間序列特性的方法有更顯著的結果，顯示企業決策有持續或成長的特性，而有關抵換理論與融資順位理論對股利與負債預測的假設大部分在本文皆獲得實證支持，顯示此兩種理論在台灣企業的長期融資與股利決策上有其一定的預測能力。

The purpose of this paper is to test tradeoff and pecking order predictions about dividends and debt. Our discussion of the tradeoff and pecking order models largely focuses on predictions about how leverage and the dividend payout ratio vary with profitability, investment opportunity and volatility of earnings and cash flows. In addition to expand the samples, we use two empirical methods adopted by Newey and West(1987) and Fama and MacBeth(1973) separately. The empirical results approximately match to our hypothesis that according to the prediction of tradeoff and pecking order theory. We confirm the long-term predictive ability of both theories about dividends and debt in Taiwan business.

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