由美國臨時申請案預測未來技術發展趨勢－以電腦通訊技術為例

Provisional Application-Based Predication of the Development Trend of Technologies - Taking Computer Communication Technologies as a Case Study

10.6656/MR.201910_38(4).CNI035

李昆鴻(Kun-Hung Lee)；陳省三(Sheng-San Cheng)

臨時申請案 ； 專利分析 ； 專利布局 ； Provisional Application ； Patent Analysis ； Patent Portfolio

管理評論

38卷4期（2019 / 10 / 01）

35 - 53

繁體中文

研究目的：本研究目的在於如何有效利用並提早預測未來的技術發展趨勢，這也將是企業發展與研發布局規劃時的重要關鍵。研究設計／方法：本研究提出四種預測方法，並透過電腦通訊領域的臨時申請案專利資訊作為分析示範案例。研究結果：將預測結果進行驗證比較，證實所提的方法能夠提供快速及準確的預測建議，並可協助學術與企業於實務經營上靈活運用。研究限制／啟發：美國臨時申請案的低成本、較早的優先權申請日等優點，吸引了全球越來越多的企業優先採用此制度申請專利，而有申請臨時申請案的專利具有較高的專利品質及較早被公開的專利資訊，因此適合作為分析預測之參考指標。理論／實務／社會意涵：隨著美國臨時申請案每年的申請總量持續成長的趨勢，未來將有越來越多的臨時申請案資訊可被取得，產業界更要早一步加以利用此資訊率先預測未來的潛力市場及發展趨勢，並提早做出規劃與布局準備，搶得市場利基。創見／價值：本研究的價值在於利用了專利資訊，預測未來具有潛力的技術市場方向，使企業能提早、正確投入資源與規劃，為企業的未來發展取得最佳的戰略地位。

Purpose - The purpose of this study illustrates how to make good use of and predict the development trend of technologies in advance, a main factor for enterprises to seek advancement and plan their research and development strategy. Design/methodology/approach - This study proposes four prediction methods, through using the provisional application patent data in computer communication domain as the basis of our analysis and demonstration. Findings - The demonstration and comparison prove that these methods can lead to quick and accurate predictions and be flexibly applied to academic and entrepreneurial practical operations. Research limitations/implications - Due to its lower cost and earlier priority application date, the U.S. provisional application has become a priority system for an increasing number of enterprises in patent application. The patents of provisional application with higher quality and earlier disclosure of patent data is suitable as a reference indicator for analysis and prediction. Practical implications/Social implications -As the annual quantity of provisional application cases increase, more and more provisional application data will be accessed. Thus, it is necessary for enterprises to make use of the data as soon as possible to predict potential markets and development trends, in order to make early preparations for planning and seize business opportunities in the market. Originality/value -The value of this study lies in the use of patent information to predict technological market directions with potential, so that enterprises can invest resources and make plans in an earlier and appropriate manner, and thus, obtain the best strategic position for their future development.

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