以系統動態學研究TFT-LCD供應鏈在不確定環境下的因應策略

Using System Dynamic Modeling to Study the Strategic Responses for Uncertainties of TFT-LCD Supply Chain

邱創鈞(Chuang-Chun Chiou)；戴承成(Cheng-Cheng Tai)

薄膜電晶體液晶顯示器TFT-LCD ； 供應鏈管理 ； 不確定 ； 系統動態學 ； TFT-LCD ； supply chain management ； uncertainty ； system dynamic

品質學報

16卷6期（2009 / 12 / 31）

369 - 386

繁體中文

台灣TFT-LCD產業的產值與產量於2007年躍居世界第一，使其成爲台灣的主力產業之一。爲持續提升該產業競爭力則需加強整體供應鏈的效率，以回應快速變遷的不確定性環境。而一般造成TFT-LCD產業供應鏈中的不確定因素相當多，不確定因素將導致供需失衡，進而造成企業嚴重虧損。本研究以系統動態模式分析TFT-LCD產業中常見的不確定因素及其影響程度，並據此模式進行情境模擬分析。主要結果爲：探究系統化分析不確定因素對產業上、中、下游庫存及面板價格的影響程度，並且提出因應不確定性之解決策略。此分析結果可供業界實務參考，所提建模觀念亦可推廣應用於其他產業。

In the trend of globalization, there is a huge need for the enterprise to promote its efficiency by considering the entire supply chain system. In 2007, both the sales and volume of TFT-LCD (Thin Film Transistor-Liquid Crystal Display) in Taiwan have already been ranked the first place in the world. To strengthen the competitiveness of Taiwan TFT-LCD industry, it is very important to conduct a better management of supply chain management. The problem caused by uncertainties of TFT-LCD Supply Chain appears unavoidably. The whole TFT-LCD industry causes the supply and demand out of balance, and serious loss in business due to the bullwhip effects such as expected psychology, incorrect information, price fluctuation, capacity utilization, business cycle, etc. The research of TFT-LCD by using system dynamic model is proposed mainly to analyze what causes these uncertain factors and effecting degree of the industry supply chains. Moreover, the major finding our of study as following: (1) To build a TFT-LCD system dynamic model is to study how TFT-LCD industry works while facing the uncertain factors such as expected psychology, price fluctuation, capacity utilization, business cycles, and how they impact TFT-LCD industry’s inventory and price; (2) Via TFT-LCD system dynamic model, it tests how the industry comes out the strategies while facing the uncertain factors such as expected psychology, price fluctuation, capacity utilization, and business cycles, etc.; and (3) To build a complete TFT-LCD system dynamic model, this model can be not only used at TFT-LCD industries, but also at the other industries. Besides, it can offer suggestions and directions for future study for the TFT-LCD and other industries.

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