CUSUM Residual Charts for Monitoring Enterovirus Infections

累積和殘差管制圖應用在監控腸病毒感染

10.6220/joq.2014.21(4).01

陳慧芬(Hui-Fen Chen)；陳余(Yu Chen)

累積和管制圖 ； 腸病毒 ； 迴歸模式 ； 症候群監控 ； CUSUM chart ； enteroviruses ； regression analysis ； syndromic surveillance

品質學報

21卷4期（2014 / 08 / 30）

219 - 232

英文

本研究探討偵測類腸病毒案例異常增加的症候群監控問題。研究資料是2003至2006年類腸病毒症狀的日感染病患人數，取樣自臺灣全民健康保險資料庫。為了使累積和殘差管制圖可應用在症候群監控上，我們建立誤差項服從ARIMA模式的迴歸模式使得殘差值互相獨立且服從常態分配，模式中亦考慮季節性及星期效應。迴歸模式也可應用在預測用途上。數值結果顯示累積和殘差管制圖可及時提供疫情爆發的警訊。

We consider the syndromic surveillance problem of detecting aberrations on enterovirus (EV) like cases. The data used in this study are the 2003 to 2006 daily counts of EV-like cases sampled from the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan. To apply the CUSUM residual chart for syndromic surveillance, a regression model with an ARIMA error-term is constructed to obtain independently and normally distributed residuals. The seasonal and day-of-the-week effects are also considered. The regression model is also useful for the forecast purpose. Numerical results show that the CUSUM residual chart can provide timely warnings for epidemic outbreaks.

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