不確定下之最適購併決策分析

The Optimal Decision of Mergers and Acquisitions under Uncertainty

10.6545/JFS.2006.14(3).4

李國榮(Kuo-Lung Lee)；廖四郎(Szu-Lang Liao)；徐守德(David S. Shyu)

購併 ； 實質選擇權 ； 門檻 ； 購併賽局 ； Mergers and acquisitions ； Real options approach ； Threshold ； Takeover game

財務金融學刊

14卷3期（2006 / 08 / 31）

111 - 140

繁體中文

本文應用實質選擇權分析法討論合併、股票收買島與現金收將等三種購併形式下的最適決策問題。我們利用兩階段的方式來探討購併的決策問題，第一階段考慮購併發生的原因包括規模經濟、目標公司經營不善、研發技術的取得與市場競爭力等因素，依據購併所產生最大綜效價值來決定最佳的目標公司；第二階段決定主併公司與目標公司最適的購併時點、換股比率或是購併金額等問題。本研究導出三種購併型態下的最適購併門檻、接股比率或購併金額，我們也發現規模經濟、績效改善、市場佔有率增加皆會降低購併門檻、加速購併活動。最後，購併型態會影響購併雙方的購併報酬與時點，其中現金收購發生的時點將晚於合併與股票收購。

This paper applies a real option approach to analyze the optimal decision of mergers, stock offers, and cash offers. We use the two-stage approach to investigate the optimal decision of merger and acquisitions. At the first stage, the merger company has to choose the target company to make the largest synergy, which comes from increased return of scale, improved performance, acquired R&D, and increased market power. At the second stage, the main work is to determine the takeover threshold (timing), exchange rate of stocks or bid premium under three forms of mergers and acquisitions. We find that increased return of scale, improved performance, and increased market power will lower takeover threshold and speed up merger activity. Finally, the forms of mergers and acquisitions will affect the timing and the returns of the acquirer and acquiree. Cash offers happen even later than mergers and stock offers.

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