多角化策略、匯率操控與外匯風險

Diversification, Currency Manipulation and Exchange Exposure

10.6545/JFS.2009.17(3).5

林育志(Luke Lin)；郭照榮(Chau-Jung Kuo)；徐守德(David S. Shyu)；謝企榮(Chi-Jung Hsieh)

跨國企業 ； 外匯曝險 ； 外匯操控 ； multinational firm ； foreign exchange exposure ； currency manipulation

財務金融學刊

17卷3期（2009 / 09 / 30）

127 - 155

繁體中文

本文以臺商赴大陸投資設廠為例，建立一外匯曝險理論模型，用以探討到第三國生產即多角化策略對跨國企業的外匯曝險是否造成影響，及匯率的操控是否影響第三國生產模式的決策？模型推導發現，跨國企業如果能善用營運策略，使其外幣收入與所有外幣成本配合，即可規避大部分的外匯風險。除此營運策略的降低效果之外值得注意的是，多角化策略的降低效果是有條件成立的，例如若各國貨幣對美元能真實反應其應有之價值，則有無到第三國生產對匯率風險並未影響，然而當匯率受到操控峙，進行第三國生產模式的決策則可再進一步降低外匯風險。除了利用企業內部的外匯曝險模型推導之外，我們還利用市場外部的實際資料來分析，結果證實了模型所導出的主要論點。

This study uses the example of a Taiwanese firm investing in China and develops an exchange rate exposure model which depends on only four endogenous variables: the percentage of the firm's revenues denoted in the currency of trade country, the percentage of the firm's expenses denoted in the currency of trade country and third country, and its profit rate. The main issue in this research attempts to detect whether producing goods in the third country will affect a multinational firm on the exchange rate exposure and whether the currency manipulation will affect the decision of producing goods in the third country. This study finds that if a multinational firm can effectively adjust operational strategy and match foreign currency income with its cost, most of the exposure can be reduced. Besides this reducible effect of operational strategy, it is worth to note that diversified strategy just works under some conditions. For example, whether producing goods in the third country or not, the firm's exposure will not make changes as long as the currency is equal to its true value. However, under the case of currency manipulation, the firm producing goods in the third country can reduce exchange rate risk further.

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