The Impact of Analysts' Forecasts on Share Repurchases as Signals for Earnings

分析師盈餘預測與股票買回信號傳遞之關聯性探討

10.6545/JFS.2010.18(2).1

劉啟群(Chi-Chun Liu)；陳妮雲(Ni-Yun Chen)

異常盈餘 ； 股票買回 ； 信號發射 ； Abnormal earnings ； share repurchases ； signal

財務金融學刊

18卷2期（2010 / 06 / 30）

1 - 25

英文

當公司實際盈餘低於分析師之盈餘預測，即公司的異常盈餘為負數時，投資人可能被此一壞消息誤導而低估公司未來的盈餘。本研究以公司宣告買回股份前五年之分析師預測準確度平均數及加權平均數，作為衡量管理當局信譽的指標。研究結果發現異常盈餘為負數的公司，存在較嚴重之資訊不對稱，故偏好使用股票買回之信號發射效果，傳遞公司未來盈餘成長的訊息給投資人。信譽良好的管理當局，當公司之異常盈餘為負數時，將更偏好使用股票買回以保障投資人之權益。

Outside shareholders may regard negative abnormal earnings, the amount by which actual earnings generated by firms fall short of what analysts forecasted, as bad news and expect that earnings will continuously decline. If managers are informed that earnings are getting better, not worse, we would expect to observe that they prompt share repurchases to signal their private information. Consistent with our expectations, we document a positive association between negative abnormal earnings and subsequent share repurchases. We also find such an association is more pronounced when managers establish a forecasting reputation among analysts.

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