Investment of Foreign Financial Institutions in China Banking Sector: A Survival Model Analysis

外資金融機構角色及其參股中國大陸銀行決策研究

10.6545/JFS.2014.22(3).1

張惠龍(Hui-Lung Chang)；吳壽山(Sou-Shan Wu)；廖四郎(Szu-Lang Liao)

參股 ； 危險函數 ； 最大概似估計值 ； 截斷資料 ； 最適機率強度門檻 ； Acquisition of equity stakes ； hazard function ； maximum likelihood estimation ； censored data ； optimal probability hazard threshold

財務金融學刊

22卷3期（2014 / 09 / 30）

1 - 25

英文

本文分析外資金融機構在中國大陸金融市場採行參股策略之動機與目標，並求得最適參股機率強度門檻。實證研究顯示外資金融機構採行參股策略目的主要在於創造被參股對象市場價值，及增加參股投資報酬。對於獲利能力及資產品質較佳之外資金融機構，以及資產品質較佳之中國大陸銀行，則具有較高之參股與被參股潛在動機。

This article applies Cox's proportional-hazard survival model to analyze foreign financial institutions' strategic equity investment decision in Chinese banks and obtain the optimal probability hazard threshold as a criterion. The results confirm that the objectives of foreign strategic investments are to increase the profitability and market values of the target Chinese banks. In general, high earning and asset quality foreign financial institutions and high asset quality Chinese banks are both highly motivated to engage in strategic investment transaction.

1. Galino, Arturo, Alejandro Micco, and Cesar Sierra, 2003, Better the devil that you know: Evidence on entry costs faced by foreign banks, Unpublished manuscript, Inter-American Development Bank.
2. Begley, Joy,Ming, Jin,Watts, Susan(1996).Bankruptcy classification errors in the 1980s: An empirical analysis of Altman's and Ohlson's models.Review of Accounting Studies,1,267-284.
3. Bevan, Alan,Estrin, Saul,Meyer, Klaus(2004).Foreign investment location and institutional development in transition economics.International Business Review,13,43-64.
4. Buch, Claudia M.(2000).Why do banks go abroad? Evidence from German data.Financial Markets, Institute and Instruments,9,33-67.
5. Buch, Claudia M.,Delong, Gayle L.(2004).Cross-border bank mergers: What lures the rare animal?.Journal of Banking and Finance,28,2077-2102.
6. Casella, George,Berger, Roger L.(2002).Statistical Inference.California:The Duxbury Press.
7. Cox, David R.(1975).Partial likelihood.Biometrika,62,269-275.
8. Cox, David R.,Oakes, David(1984).Analysis of Survival Data.London:The Chapman and Hall Press.
9. Di Giovanni, Julian(2005).What drives capital flow? The case of cross-border M&A activity and financial deepening.Journal of International Economics,65,127-149.
10. Focarelli, Dario,Pozzolo, Alberto F.(2005).Where do banks expand abroad? An empirical analysis.Journal of Business,78,2435-2463.
11. Kaiser, Henry F.(1960).The application of electronic computers to factor analysis.Educational and Psychological Measurement,20,141-151.
12. Narula, Rajneesh(ed.),Cantwell, John(ed.)(2003).International Business and the Eclectic Paradigm: Developing the OLI Framework.Routledge.
13. Noh, Hyun J.,Roh, Tae H.,Han, Ingoo(2005).Prognostic personal credit risk model considering censored information.Expert Systems with Applications,28,753-762.
14. Shumway, Tyler(2001).Forecasting bankruptcy more accurately: A simple hazard model.Journal of Business,74,101-124.
15. Whalen, Gary(1991).A proportional hazard model of bank failure: An examination of its usefulness as an early warning tools.Economic Review,27,21-31.
16. Wheelock, David C.,Wilson, Paul W.(2000).Why do banks disappear? The determinants of U.S. bank failures and acquisition.Review of Economics and Statistics,82,127-138.