Pension Reform and Self-Employment in Hong Kong

香港年金改革與自營就業之探討

10.6545/JFS.2016.24(3).4

莊慧玲(Hwei-Lin Chuang)；蘇正偉(Cheng-Wai Sou)；邱詩詠(Shih-Yung Chiu)

自營就業 ； 香港 ； 年金改革 ； 不景氣－推擠假說 ； 景氣－吸引假說 ； Self-employment ； Hong Kong ； pension reform ； recession-push hypothesis ； prosperity-pull hypothesis

財務金融學刊

24卷3期（2016 / 09 / 30）

91 - 122

英文

本文以香港綜合統計調查資料為研究對象，探討香港年金改革對自營就業之可能影響，運用probit 模型和考慮樣本選擇之probit 模型，進行個體實證分析結果發現：年金改革的確會提高營造業自營就業比例。根據誤差修正模型進行之總體面分析計結果顯示，「不景氣－推擠」效果假說可以部份解釋香港營造業自營作業比例與失業率之關係。

This paper examines the big jump in the self-employment rate between 2000 and 2001 in Hong Kong caused by the effect of the 2000 pension reform on self-employment. We use General Household Survey data and apply both the probit model and the probit model with sample selection to estimating the probability of self-employment. Our findings suggest that this pension reform has a positive effect on the self-employment rate in the construction industry. We also conduct a macro analysis, with the estimation results from the error correction model, showing some evidence that supports the recession-push hypothesis, particularly in the construction industry.

1. Yu, Ruoh-Rong(2004)。Transition to self-employment in Taiwan: A test of the recession-push hypothesis。Taiwan Economic Review，32，63-96。
   連結：
2. Bjuggren, Carl M., Dan Johansson, and Mikael Stenkula, 2010, Using self-employment as proxy for entreneurship: Some empirical caveats, Working paper
3. Alba-Ramirez, Alfonso(1994).Self-Employment in the midst of unemployment: The case of Spain and the United States.Applied Economics,26,189-204.
4. Arai, Bruce(1997).The road not taken: The transition from unemployment to self-employment in Canada, 1961-1994.Canadian Journal of Sociology,22,365-382.
5. Bank of England(2001).Finance for Small Firms: Eighth Report.London:Bank of England.
6. Becker, Gary S.(1975).Human Capital.Columbia University Press.
7. Blanchflower, David G.(2000).Self-Employment in OECD countries.Labour Economics,7,471-505.
8. Blanchflower, David G.,Meyer, Bruce D.(1994).A longitudinal analysis of the young self-employed in Australia and United States.Small Business Economics,6,1-19.
9. Blanchflower, David G.,Oswald, Andrew J.(1998).What makes an entrepreneur?.Journal of Labor Economics,16,26-60.
10. Bound, John,Griliches, Zvi,Hall, Bronwyn H.(1986).Wages, schooling, and IQ of brothers and sisters: Do the family factors differ?.International Economic Review,27,77-105.
11. Bruce, Donald(2000).Effects of the United States tax system on transitions into self-employment.Labour Economics,7,545-574.
12. Bruce, Donald,Schuetze, Herbert J.(2004).The labor market consequences of experience in self-employment.Labor Economics,11,575-598.
13. Buchmann, Marlis,Kriesi, Irene,Sacchi, Stefan(2009).Labour market, job opportunities, and transitions to self-employment: Evidence from Switzerland from the mid-1960s to the late 1980s.European Sociological Review,25,569-583.
14. Burke, Andrew,FitzRoy, Felix R.,Nolan, Michael A.(2000).When less is more: Distinguishing between entrepreneurial choice and performance.Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,62,565-587.
15. Carrasco, Raquel(1999).Transitions to and from self-employment in Spain: An empirical analysis.Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,61,315-341.
16. Carree, Martin A.(2002).Does unemployment affect the number of establishments? A regional analysis for U.S. states.Regional Studies,36,389-398.
17. Cowling, Marc,Mitchell, Peter(1997).The evolution of U.K. self-employment: A study of government policy and the role of the macro economy.Manchester School,65,427-442.
18. Davidsson, Per,Honig, Benson(2003).The role of social and human capital among nascent entrepreneurs.Journal of Business Venturing,18,301-331.
19. Evans, David S.,Jovanovic, Boyan(1989).An estimated model of entrepreneurial choice under liquidity constraints.Journal of Political Economy,97,808-827.
20. Evans, David S.,Leighton, Linda S.(1989).The determinants of changes in U.S. self-employment, 1968-1987.Small Business Economics,1,111-119.
21. Fairlie, Robert W.,Meyer, Bruce D.(1996).Ethnic and racial self-employment differences and possible explanations.Journal of Human Resources,31,757-793.
22. Georgellis, Yannis,Sessions, John G.,Tsitsianis, Nikolaos(2005).Winfalls, wealth, and the transition of self-employment.Small Business Economics,25,407-428.
23. Georgellis, Yannis,Wall, Howard J.(1999).,未出版
24. Hamermesh, Daniel S.(ed.),Bean, Frank D.(ed.)(1998).Help or Hindrance? The Economic Implications of Immigration for African-Americans.New York:Russell Sage Foundation.
25. Hamilton, Barton H.(2000).Does entrepreneurship pay? An empirical analysis of the returns to selfemployment.Journal of Political Economy,108,604-631.
26. Hammarstedt, Mats(2001).Immigrant self-employment in Sweden-Its variation and some possible determinants.Entrepreneurship and Regional Development,13,147-161.
27. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas,Joulfaian, David,Rosen, Harvey S.(1994).Entrepreneurial decisions and liquidity constraints.Rand Journal of Economics,25,334-347.
28. Hwang, Jen-Te(1994)。The relationships among non-labor force, informal sector employment, and unemployment rate in Taiwan, 1978-1990。National Chengchi University Journal，68，201-221。
29. Johansson, Edvard(2000).Self-Employment and liquidity constraints: Evidence from Finland.Scandinavian Journal of Economics,102,123-134.
30. Kidd, Michael(1993).Immigrant wage differentials and the role of self-employment in Australia.Australian Economic Papers,32,92-115.
31. Kim, Phillip H.,Aldrich, Howard E.,Keister, Lisa A.(2006).Access (not) denied: The impact of financial, human, and cultural capital on entrepreneurial entry in the United States.Small Business Economics,27,5-22.
32. Kirzner, Israel M.(1973).Competition and Entrepreneurship.Chicago University Press.
33. Lazear, Edward P.(2005).Entrepreneurship.Journal of Labor Economics,23,649-680.
34. Lentz, Bernard F.,Laband, David N.(1990).Entrepreneurial success and occupational inheritance among proprietors.Canadian Journal of Economics,23,563-579.
35. Lindh, Thomas,Ohlsson, Henry(1998).Self-Employment and wealth inequality.Review of Income and Wealth,44,25-42.
36. Lindh, Thomas,Ohlsson, Henry(1996).Self-Employment and windfall gains: Evidence from the Swedish lottery.Economic Journal,106,1515-1526.
37. Masuda, Tatsuyoshi(2006).The determinants of latent entrepreneurship in Japan.Small Business Economics,26,227-240.
38. Mincer, Jacob(1974).Schooling, Experience and Earnings.Columbia University Press.
39. Park, Hyunjoon(2010).The stability of self-employment: A comparison between Japan and Korea.International Sociology,25,98-122.
40. Parker, Simon C.(2004).The Economics of Self-employment and Entrepreneruship.Cambridge University Press.
41. Parker, Simon C.(1996).A time series model of self-employment under uncertainty.Economica,63,459-475.
42. Pfeiffer, Friedhelm,Pohlmeier, Winfried(1992).Income, uncertainty, and the probability of self-employment.Recherche Economiques de Louvain,58,265-281.
43. Robson, Martin T.(1998).The rise in self-employment amongst U.K. males.Small Business Economics,10,199-212.
44. Robson, Martin T.(1998).Self-Employment in the U.K. regions.Applied Economics,30,313-322.
45. Robson, Martin T.,Wren, Colin(1999).Marginal and average tax rates and the incentive for self-employment.Southern Economic Journal,65,757-773.
46. Schuetze, Herb J.(2000).Taxes, economic conditions, and recent trends in male self-employment: A Canada-U.S. comparison.Labour Economics,7,507-544.
47. Siu, Wai-Sum,Martin, Robert G.(1992).Successful entrepreneurship in Hong Kong.Long Range Planning,25,87-93.
48. Steinmetz, George,Wright, Erik Olin(1989).The fall and rise of the pretty bourgeoisie: Changing patterns of self-employment in the postwar United States.American Journal of Sociology,94,973-1018.
49. Tam, Simon,Redding, Gordon S.(1993).The impact of colonialism on the formation of an entrepreneurial society in Hong Kong.Entrepreneurship Research: Global Perspectives
50. Taylor, Mark P.(2001).Self-Employment and windfall gains in Britain: Evidence from panel data.Economica,68,539-565.
51. Thurik, Roy,Carree, Martin A.,van Stel, André,Audretsch, David B.(2008).Does self-employment reduce unemployment?.Journal of Business Venturing,23,673-686.
52. Yeung, Henry W.-C.(ed.),Olds, Kris(ed.)(2000).Globalization of Chinese Business Firms.London:Palgrave Macmillan.