| 题名 |
油價峰廻路轉的贏家與輸家 |
| 并列篇名 |
The Winners and Losers in The Roller Coaster Oil Price |
| 作者 |
丁信修(Hsin-Hsiu Ting) |
| 关键词 |
美國德州中質原油 ； 布倫特原油 ； 價差 ； 頁岩油 ； 國際海洋組織低硫燃料法規 ； 石油市場 ； WTI ； Brent ； Spread Differential ； Shale Oil ； IMO Sulfur Regulation ； Oil Market |
| 期刊名称 |
石油季刊 |
| 卷期/出版年月 |
54卷2期（2018 / 06 / 01） |
| 页次 |
71 - 79 |
| 内容语文 |
繁體中文 |
| 中文摘要 |
在2017年，油價上揚一直被視為全球經濟復甦的動力之一，但綜觀種種因素，這個樂觀的看法似已逐漸消失，2018年上半年油價持續的上揚，似又有點像個惡夢。美國德州中質原油(WTI)受惠於與北海布倫特原油(Brent)的價差，出口到亞洲的原油不斷成長，與西非(WAF)、OPEC與俄國等原油爭食亞洲市場份額。而不久將要實施的新法規，對石油市場有著空前的衝擊，對煉油產業更是。也有人認為市場上的油價將會反轉下跌，因為那些導致油價上揚的誇張臆測，如今已被市場的基本面(Fundamentals)取代。所以油價不會隨一些評論家所言漲到100美元／桶，反而更可能朝向50美元／桶前進。在每桶50美元的情況下，美國的頁岩生產就難有經濟價值。倘若油價跌得太超過，沙烏地阿拉伯及其它國家就可能重新調整各會員國的產量配額，普遍認為，維持市場平衡最合理的油價區段應是每桶50～60美元。由於OPEC及俄國兩方的共同努力，限產一年半以來，已成功地降低全球石油過量供應的壓力，並漸邁向供需平衡。美國的緻密油（頁岩油）生產公司受到油價上揚的鼓舞，很快就能增加產量，以確保足夠的供應，防止油價過度上漲。當油價達到80美元／桶時，無可避免地，有一些是贏家，另一些則是輸家。 |
| 英文摘要 |
Rising oil prices were seen in 2017 as a positive result of growing global growth and recovery, but a combination of factors is turning this favorable view into a worse scenario in May 2018. A wide WTI-Brent spread helps to increase the exports of US crude oil to Asia, which enable US crude to compete for Asian market shares with WAF, OPEC and Russia. But a forthcoming regulation that analysts have called ＂the biggest change in oil market history＂ and the ＂the most disruptive change in the refining industry＂ is lurking just around the corner, and experts say that it will drive oil prices higher as it will fundamentally shift the demand pattern for fuels. On the other hand, some experts argue that the market is now set for a further fall as the hype and speculation that led to the increase is replaced by a cold return to fundamentals. Since there is no physical shortage the answer is that instead of rising to a $100 as some commentators have suggested, the price is more likely to fall towards $50 per barrel. Under this level, some US shale production becomes uneconomic. If it gets too low the Saudis and others will try to declare their new production quotas and so a reasonable bet on where the market balances would be around $50 to $60. On the supply side, the combined efforts of OPEC and Russia, leaky as the agreement has been, have managed to reduce the global oil surplus in just 18 months to bring the market largely into balance. As a result, oil prices have gradually risen during the period. It's a trend most observers have been sanguine about, believing the US's tight oil producers, encouraged by rising prices, will increase output to ensure ample supply and keep a lid on oil prices getting ahead of themselves. As Brent hits $80 a barrel, some are the winners and others are the losers of the rising crude prices. |
| 主题分类 |
工程學 >
礦冶與冶金工程 社會科學 > 經濟學 |
| 参考文献 |
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