题名

推動增氣減煤能源轉型的關鍵與抉擇

并列篇名

The key and Choice of Promoting the Energy Transformation to Increase Gas and Reduce Coal

作者

林茂文(Maw-Wen Lin)

关键词

液化天然氣接收站 ; 天然氣供需 ; 大潭藻礁 ; 能源轉型 ; LNG Receiving Terminal ; Natural Gas Supply and Demand ; Datan Algae Reef ; Energy Transformation

期刊名称

石油季刊

卷期/出版年月

57卷2期(2021 / 06 / 01)

页次

1 - 33

内容语文

繁體中文

中文摘要

因應氣候變遷與能源轉型議題,天然氣已成為許多國家重要的低碳能源選項,此一趨勢牽動全球天然氣供需持續快速成長,也促進貿易蓬勃發展。政府計畫在桃園觀塘興建國內第三座液化天然氣接收站,目前接收站開發案因涉及生態、能源等複雜問題,演變成大潭藻礁公投案,致使工程進度恐遭受嚴重影響。該接收站若不能及時供氣發電,北部地區將出現很大的電力缺口,可能衝擊到竹科在內的台灣經濟命脈,以及北部地區逾一千萬人口的電力供應。台灣經濟和產業的發展需仰賴穩定的電力供應,第三座液化天然氣接收站是國內電力穩定供應之重要能源基礎設施,可強化分區供電能力、降低系統風險,並協助中南部減煤,改善空污。若第三接收站遷址,需要重新環評、取得用地、填海造地,加上興建工程等,供氣時程延後至少11年。呼籲大眾應考量減煤期程影響最小化及藻礁保育最大化的再外推方案、支持興建第三座液化天然氣接收站,以平衡區域供電、增加供氣來源,讓台灣的能源轉型有路可走。本篇報告將先就全球天然氣供需概況與預測進行分析,接續剖析國內未來天然氣供需預估情境,並盤點各界對中油公司在桃園興建液化天然氣接收站造成藻礁生態的衝擊影響,綜整分析後發現,中油興建第三座液化天然氣接收站確有其必要性與急迫性,期盼民眾能予以支持並籲「珍愛藻礁公投」投「不同意」票,以達成增氣減煤與能源轉型之目標。

英文摘要

In response to climate change and energy transition issues, natural gas has become an important low-carbon energy option for many countries. This trend has been promoting the rapid and continuous growth of global supply and demand of natural gas, while also boosting up the vigorous development of trades. The government plans to build a third natural gas receiving terminal in Kwun Tong, Taoyuan. At present, the development of the third natural gas receiving terminal involves ecological, energy and other complex issues , which has evolved into a referendum on the algae reef in Datan, which has seriously affected the progress of the project . If the gas cannot be supplied to generate electricity in time, there will be a large power gap in the northern region, which may impact the lifeline of Taiwan's economy, including the Hsinchu Science Park, and the electricity used by over 10 million people in the northern region. Taiwan's economy and industry development rely on a stable power supply. The third receiving terminal is an important energy infrastructure for stable supply of power in our country. It strengthens local power supply in the northern region, reduces systematic risks, and helps the central and southern regions to reduce coal use and decrease air pollution. If the third receiving terminal need relocation, the environmental assessment, land acquisition, land reclamation, and facility construction would be required, and the gas supply schedule would be delayed by at least 11 years. The extrapolation project minimizes the impact of coal reduction period and maximizes the conservation of algae reefs at the same time. Agree with the construction of the third receiving terminal so it can increase gas supply and balance power generation of different regions. Thus, Taiwan's energy transformation has a valid way to go. This report will first analyze the global supply and demand of natural gas, profile future circumstances of domestic supply and demand of natural gas, and take stock of environmental protection groups' opinions on CPC's construction of a natural gas receiving station in Taoyuan, which might cause some impact on the algal reef ecology. After a comprehensive analysis, the construction of the third natural gas receiving terminal is urgent and necessary, and we look forward to the support of public to move towards the goal to increase gas and reduce coal use and the transformation of energy supply.

主题分类 工程學 > 礦冶與冶金工程
社會科學 > 經濟學
参考文献
  1. 李皇章(2019)。台灣天然氣產業的現況及展望。中國石油學會石油季刊,55(4)
    連結:
  2. 林茂文(2018)。邁向非核家園與擴供天然氣之影響分析。中國石油學會石油季刊,54(2)
    連結:
  3. Asia Pacific Energy Research Center, 2020, Gas Report 2020.
  4. IGU , 2020, Global LNG Report, April 2020.
  5. Mckinsey & Company(2021).Mckinsey & Company, 2021, Global Gas Outlook to 2050, Feb. 2021..
  6. Shell, 2020, LNG Outlook, August 2020.
  7. 方振仁(2017)。天然氣市場供應現況與未來發展。鑛冶工程學會 106 年年會專題報告
  8. 台灣電力公司,2021,2018/2019 年全國電力資源供需報告,110 年 5 月 12 日。
  9. 自由、聯合、經濟、中時、工商、蘋果日報,2021,三接與藻礁相關資料以及經濟部5 月 3 日提出三接外推方案報導。
  10. 林茂文(2018)。三接對能源轉型的必要性。我國能源轉型與第三 LNG 接收站開發計畫專題論壇
  11. 林茂文(2007).時間數列分析與預測.華泰書局出版.
  12. 陳詩豪(2020)。後疫情時代天然氣產業的機會與挑戰。中國石油學會 109 年專題論壇─後疫情時代油氣產業的機會與契機
  13. 陳慰慈(2018)。第三 LNG 接收站對我國能源轉型之重要性。我國能源轉型與第三 LNG接收站開發計畫專題論壇
  14. 廖慧貞(2018)。第三 LNG 接收站建站說明。我國能源轉型與第三 LNG 接收站開發計畫專題論壇
  15. 廖慧貞(2018)。因應能源轉型─我國天然氣系統面臨的課題與挑戰。氣候變遷與永續發展 107 年年會專題報告