| 题名 |
COVID-19疫情對頁岩油產業之影響 |
| 并列篇名 |
The Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic on the Shale Oil Industry |
| 作者 |
田志明(Chih-Ming Tien)；沈建豪(Chen-Hao Shen)；李佳勳(Chia-Hsun Lee)；紀蕙青(Hui-Ching Chi)；陳冠志(Kuan-Chih Chen)；陳大麟(Ta-Lin Chen) |
| 关键词 |
COVID-19 ； 頁岩油 ； 液裂 ； 能源轉型 ； COVID-19 ； Shale Oil ； Hydraulic Fracturing ； Energy transition |
| 期刊名称 |
石油季刊 |
| 卷期/出版年月 |
57卷2期（2021 / 06 / 01） |
| 页次 |
35 - 52 |
| 内容语文 |
繁體中文 |
| 中文摘要 |
近年美國頁岩油靠水平井與水力液裂技術，使得全球能源供應版圖重新洗牌，石油輸出國組織與夥伴國（OPEC＋），對於頁岩油在市場所帶來之衝擊無不謹慎看待，雖然頁岩油成本仍無法與傳統能源相抗衡，但對石油供給面仍有一定衝擊。然而2020年受到新型冠狀病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情影響，能源需求下滑等綜合因素導致油價下跌，頁岩油開採成本仍無法承受長期低油價影響，導致部份美國主要經營頁岩油氣公司，申請破產保護進行債務重整，或遭受大型石油公司併購。即使油價低迷，部分能源專家仍樂觀認為原油需求下滑僅是受到疫情影響之短期現象，終究會回到先前預估之需求水位，但有些則認為全球暖化，加上電動車市場等因素帶動下，將加速能源轉型。儘管石油需求之前景充滿不確定性，但頁岩油在原油供給市場上仍有重要地位，也是目前眾多石油公司投資或併購標的之一。全球暖化暨能源轉型議題，與2021年美國新政府上台之能源政策，將是長期影響頁岩油產業之因素。這些議題成為低碳社會最佳之催化劑，促使部分石油公司陸續開始往乾淨能源與低碳科技發展。但就短期原油需求而言，現階段疫情雖仍無法有效獲得控制，但疫情過後之經濟活動反彈確實能再次拉抬原油需求，北美頁岩油擁有埋藏量豐富、技術成熟和政經風險穩定之特性，從近幾年之併購交易，經營人邁向大者恆大似乎是一個不爭的事實，但仍是石油公司值得投資之口袋資產名單。 |
| 英文摘要 |
Tthe impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 and the decline in energy demand lead to low oil prices, and the cost of shale oil production is unable to sustain in a long term. As a result, some major shale oil/gas companies in the United States have filed for bankruptcy protection for debt restructuring or suffered from the merger and acquisition of large oil companies. Even oil prices stay low, some energy experts suppose that the decline in oil demand is only a short term phenomenon due to the COVID-19 outbreak, and will eventually return to the level previously. However, some believe that it will accelerate the energy transition under global warming, low carbon economy, the electric vehicle market, etc. Despite the uncertainty of the outlook for oil demand, shale oil still plays an important role in the oil supply market, and this asset is also one of the targets of investment or mergers and acquisitions by many oil companies. The issues from global warming, energy transition, and the energy policy of the new U.S. government in 2021 will impact the shale oil industry in a long term. These issues have become the best catalysts for a low carbon society, and push some oil companies to move towards clean energy and develop low carbon technologies. Although the epidemic cannot be effectively contained at this moment, the recovery in economic activity after the epidemic can indeed promote oil demand again in terms of short-term oil supply. It goes without saying that the shale oil and gas companies evolve into the bigger oil companies through mergers and acquisitions in recent years. It implies that shale oil in North America of abundant reserves, innovative technologies, stable politics, and low economic risks are still worth the investment. |
| 主题分类 |
工程學 >
礦冶與冶金工程 社會科學 > 經濟學 |
| 参考文献 |
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