行政首長施政滿意度的影響性分析─東亞國家的比較

The Impact Analysis of the Administrative Heads' Performance: A Comparison of East Asian Countries

10.6229/CPSR.2010.49.02

蔡昌言(Chang-Yen Tsai)

分量迴歸 ； 民主化程度 ； 東亞 ； 施政滿意度 ； 貪腐程度 ； degree of corruption ； degree of democracy ； East Asia ； quantile regression ； satisfaction degree

政治學報

49期（2010 / 06 / 01）

41 - 69

繁體中文

行政首長的施政滿意度是現代民主國家重要的意見回饋機制，不但攸關行政首長連任的勝算，同時也影響政策推動是否順利，在美國學界早已引起相當廣泛的研究，但此研究領域在國內尚在起步階段。本文嘗試以分量迴歸模型分析東亞民主化調查的資料，來檢驗可能影響東亞各國施政滿意度的因素。本文研究發現，民主化程度、經濟環境、個人條件等因素均會對施政滿意度的起伏造成影響，且在分量迴歸的分析之下，本文發現對行政首長執政滿意度有負面影響的貪腐程度評價，主要發生在對行政首長的執政較不滿意的民眾身上，而當民眾對於行政首長的滿意度轉為較認同時，影響滿意度的主要因素則轉變為具有正面影響的經濟環境與行政信任評價因素。

Public satisfaction with the administrative heads is an important feedback mechanism in a modern democratic country, not only for winning the reelections, but also for smoothing the public policy implementation. It has been widely researched academically in the United States, but is still in its early stage in Taiwan. This study aims to analyze data of East Asian democracy by using a quantile regression model and to examine any possible factors that may affect public opinion polls in East Asian countries.This study finds that factors such as the degree of democracy, economic environments and personal attributes can affect the fluctuation of public satisfaction towards public policy implementation. Under the analysis of the quantile regression, this study finds that the degree to which corruption is perceived can negatively impact public satisfaction with the administrative heads when the public is not satisfied with the performance of these administrative heads. However, when the public is content with these administrative heads' performance, the factors that affect public satisfaction are changed to economic environments and administrative trust that can positively impact public satisfaction with the performance of these administrative heads.

1. 王靖興、孫天龍(2005)。臺灣民眾民主政治評價影響因素之分析。臺灣民主季刊，2(3)，55-79。
   連結：
2. 徐永明、林昌平(2009)。「南方政治」的再檢驗：總統選票的分量迥歸分析。選舉研究，16(1)，1-36。
   連結：
3. 張傳賢、張佑宗(2006)。選舉課責：拉丁美洲國家政府施政表現與選舉得票相關性的研究。台灣政治學刊，10(2)，101-147。
   連結：
4. 盛治仁、白瑋華(2008)。陳水扁總統首任施政評價影響因素探討。東吳政治學報，26(1)，1-50。
   連結：
5. 陳建良、管中閔(2006)。台灣工資函數與工資性別歧視的分量迴歸分析。經濟論文，34(4)，435-468。
   連結：
6. 蕭全政(2004)。經濟發展與台灣的政治民主化。臺灣民主季刊，1(1)，1-25。
   連結：
7. 胡佛、朱雲漢，2008，〈第二波「亞洲民主動態調查」〉，國立臺灣大學東亞民主研究中心：http://140.109.171.198/chinese/sur_method_wave2.html。2009/9/7
8. Bobo, L.,Gilliam, Jr. F. D.(1990).Race, Sociopolitical Participation, and Black Empowerment.American Political Science Review,84(2),376-393.
9. Brace, P.,Hinckley, B.(1993).Presidential Activities from Truman through Reagan: Timing and Impact.The Journal of Politics,55(2),382-398.
10. Bratton, M.,Mattes, R.(2001).Support for Democracy in Africa: Intrinsic or Instrumental?.British Journal of Political Science,31,447-474.
11. Brody, R. W.(1991).Assessing the President: The Media, Elite Opinion and Public Support.Stanford, CA:Stanford University Press.
12. Chang, E. C. C.,Chu, Y.-H.(2006).Political Corruption and Institutional Trust in East Asia.Journal of Politics,68(2),259-271.
13. Chang, Y.-T.,Chu, Y.-H.,Huang, M.-H.(2006).The Uneven Growth of Democratic Legitimacy in East Asia.International Journal of Public Opinion Research,18(2),246-255.
14. Chang, Y.-T.,Chu, Y.-H.,Park, C.-M.(2007).Authoritarian Nostalgia in Asia.Journal of Democracy,18(3),66-80.
15. Chang, Y.-T.,Chu, Y.-H.,Tsai, F.(2005).Confucianism and Democratic Values in Three Chinese Societies.Issues & Studies,41(4),1-33.
16. Chanley, V. A.(2002).Trust in Government in the Aftermath of 9/11: Determinants and Consequences.Political Psychology,23(3),469-483.
17. Chu, Y.-H.(2004).Taiwan's National Identity Politics and the Prospect of Cross-Strait Relations.Asian Survey,44(4),484-512.
18. Chu, Y.-H.,Diamond, L.,Shin, D. C.(2001).Halting Progress in Korea and Taiwan.Journal of Democracy,12(1),122-136.
19. Chu, Y.-H.,Huang, M.-H.(2007).Partisanship and Citizen Politics in East Asia.Journal of East Asian Studies,7(2),295-322.
20. Dalton, R. J.(1994).Communists and Democrats: Democratic Attitudes in the Two Germanies.British Journal of Political Science,24(4),469-493.
21. Dalton, R. J.,Chu, Y.-H.,Shin, D. C.(2007).Introduction: Parties, Party Choice, and Partisanship in East Asia.Journal of East Asian Studies,7,177-184.
22. Dogan, M.(ed.)(1988).Comparing Pluralist Democracies: Strains in Legitimacy.Boulder, CO:Westview Press.
23. Easton, D.(1975).A Re-Assessment of the Concept of Political Support.British Journal of Political Science,5(4),435-457.
24. Erikson, R.,MacKuen, M.,Stimson, J.(2002).The Macro Polity.New York:Cambridge University Press.
25. Golden, D.,Poterba, J, M.(1980).The Price of Popularity: The Political Business Cycle Reexamined.American Journal of Political Science,24(4),696-714.
26. Hetherington, M. J.(1999).The Effect of Political Trust on the Presidential Vote, 1968-1996.American Political Science Review,93(2),311-326.
27. Kenski, H(1977).The Impact of Economic Conditions on Presidential Popularity.The Journal of Politics,39(3),764-773.
28. Kernell, S.(1978).Explaining Presidential Popularity: How Ad Hoc Theorizing, Misplaced Emphasis, and Insufficient Care in Measuring One's Variables Refuted Common Sense and Led Conventional Wisdom Down the Path of Anomalies.The American Political Science Review,72(2),506-522.
29. Kim, S.(2004).Political Trust, Institutional Reform, and Democratic Deepening in Korea.the Conference on Political Challenges and Democratic Institutions,Taipei:
30. Koenker, R.(2000).Galton, Edgeworth, Frisch, and Prospects for Quantile Regression in Econometrics.Econometrica,95(2),347-374.
31. Koenker, R.,Basset, G.(1978).Regression Quantiles.Econometrica,46,33-50.
32. Lagos, M.(2001).Between Stability and Crisis in Latin America.Journal of Democracy,12(1),137-145.
33. MacKuen, M. B.(1983).Political Drama, Economic Conditions, and the Dynamics of Presidential Popularity.American Journal of Political Science,27(2),165-192.
34. McClosky, H.,Shanks, J. M.,Sniderman, P. M.(1975).Personal and Political Sources of Political Alienation.British Journal of Political Science,5,1-31.
35. Miller, A. H.(1974).Political Issue and Trust in Government: 1964-1970.American Political Science Review,68(3),951-972.
36. Monroe, A. D.(1978).Public Opinion and Public Policy, 1960-1974.annual meeting of the American Political Science Association,New York:
37. Mueller, J.(1970).Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson.American Political Science Review,64,18-34.
38. Norpoth, H.(1984).Economics, Politics, and the Cycle of Presidential Popularity.Political Behavior,6(3),253-273.
39. Ostrom, C. W.,Simon, D. M.(1985).Promise and Performance: A Dynamic Model of Presidential Popularity.The American Political Science Review,79(2),334-358.
40. Pereira, L. C. B.,Maravall, J. M.,Przeworski, A.(1993).Economic Reforms in New Democracies: A Social Democratic Approach.New York:Cambridge University Press.
41. Przeworski, A.(1991).Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America.Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press.
42. Schmitt, H.(1983).Party Government in Public Opinion: A European Cross-National Comparison.European Journal of Political Research,11(4),353-376.
43. Sorensen, G.(1993).Democracy and Democratization: Processes and Prospects in a Changing World.Oxford, UK:Westview Press.
44. Stimson, J. A.(1976).Public Support for American Presidents: A Cyclical Model.Public Opinion Quarterty,40,1-21.
45. Williams, J. T.(1985).Systemic Influence on Political Trust: The Importance of Perceived Institutional Performance.Political Methodology,11(1-2),125-142.
46. 朱雲漢(2003)。臺灣選舉與民主化調查研究。台北:中央研究院。
47. 李世宏、吳重禮(2003)。總統施政表現評價影響因素之分析與比較，以整體施政、經濟發展與兩岸關係爲例。公共行政學報，8，35-71。
48. 涂志堅、劉念夏(2001)。陳水扁總統就職週年施政滿意度之評估。國家政策論壇，1(3)，1-16。
49. 陳陸輝、陳義彥(2002)。政治功效意識、政治信任感以及臺灣選民的民主價值。2001年選舉與民主化調查研究學術研討會，台北:
50. 鄭敦仁、江大樹(1997)。臺灣的憲政發展與民主鞏固。國家政策雙周刊，157，2-4。
51. 鐘敏玲、蔡奇霖(2005)。臺灣民眾民主滿意度之研究。臺灣選舉與民主化調查（2004總統大選）國際學術研討會，台北: