中國崛起與美中互動關係解析（1990～2016）：權力轉移理論與貿易和平理論的應用

The Rise of China and the Interaction Between the U.S. and China (1990-2016): The Applying of Power Transition Theory and Trade Peace Theory

10.6229/CPSR.202112_(72).0004

林偉修(Wei-Hsiu Lin)

美中關係 ； 貿易和平 ； 衝突 ； 權力轉移 ； US-China Relation ； Trade Peace ； Conflict ； Power Transition

政治學報

72期（2021 / 12 / 01）

115 - 151

繁體中文

權力轉移理論（power transition theory）和貿易和平理論（trade peace theory）對於「中國崛起」提出截然不同的觀點。權力轉移理論認為，中國崛起改變了國際權力結構，當中國與現今霸權美國的權力差距愈來愈小，在中國亟欲挑戰美國霸權之際，雙方衝突升高的可能將是無可避免。然而，貿易和平理論卻認為基於機會成本的考量，美中之間盤根錯節的貿易關係使得兩國都不願意升高衝突，美中之間發生軍事衝突的可能性微乎其微。本文整合上述兩個理論，提出貿易─權力轉移的分析架構並檢視1990～2016年間的美中互動。根據該分析架構，「中國崛起」拉近了美中之間的權力差距，提高兩國之間的緊張，但隨著雙方貿易從依賴關係一直發展到現在的美中互賴，中國選擇回應的方式受到限制，美中衝突或許會發生，但是衝突持續升高甚或變成武裝衝突的機率，可能並不如權力轉移理論所預期的高。

Power transition theory and trade peace theory regard the rise of China differently. Power transition theory argues that while the power parity between China and the U.S. becomes narrow, the probability of militarized conflicts will increase significantly. However, trade peace theory provides different insights, in which interlocking trade relations between the U.S. and China increase the possibility that both countries are unwilling to solve conflicts with military power. This paper integrates the two theories above and provides a framework with trade-power-transition to analyze the interaction between the U.S. and China during 1990 and 2016. According to the framework, the rise of China did narrow power parity, intensifying the tension between the U.S. and China, but the trade relation developing from dependence to interdependence relationship will constrain China's choices. Conflicts between the U.S. and China are still possible, however, the probability of militarized conflicts will not be as high as the power transition theory predicts.

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