風險知覺與沉沒成本效應關聯之研究

The Relationship between Risk Perception and Sunk Cost Effects

楊美玲(Mei-Ling Yang)；鄭國枝(Kuo-Chih Cheng)；倪豐裕(Feng-Yu Ni)

沉沒成本效應 ； 沉沒成本 ； 風險知覺 ； Sunk Cost Effects ； Sunk Cost ； Risk Perception

管理與系統

16卷4期（2009 / 10 / 01）

487 - 504

繁體中文

先前研究認爲沉沒成本效應係決策者風險認知偏誤所造成，然而相關文獻皆未明確的指出風險認知與沉沒成本效應間清楚的關係。本研究爲瞭解決策者風險知覺是如何影響沉沒成本效應，檢測風險知覺、沉沒成本水準及決策者繼續投資意願三個變數間的關係，分別依據中介模型及調節模型，以風險知覺爲中介變數及調節變數，檢測其對沉沒成本水準及決策者繼續投資意願間關係的顯著性。研究結果顯示，在中介效果方面，沉沒成本水準並未透過風險知覺間接影響決策者繼續投資意願，風險知覺對沉沒成本水準與決策者繼續投資意願間關係不具中介效果。相對在調節效果方面，沉沒成本水準對決策者繼續投資意願間的關係，受到不同高低風險知覺情境的影響，處於風險知覺越低的情境下，沉沒成本水準對決策者繼續投資意願影響顯著提高，越容易產生沉沒成本效應，風險知覺對沉沒成本水準與決策者繼續投資意願間關係具調節效果。

Prior research indicates sunk cost effects is due to the risk cognitive bias. However, there are few empirical studies indicate clear relationships between risk perception and sunk cost effects. This paper explores how risk perception affects sunk cost effects by examining the relationships among three variables, including risk perception, sunk cost levels, and willingness to continue a project. For testing their relationships, the authors employ a mediation model as well as a moderation model. The results of the research do not support the postulate that there is an indirect relationship between sunk cost and willingness to continue a project acting through risk perception. Therefore, the effect of sunk cost on decision makers’ willingness to continue a project is not mediated by risk perception. In contrast, the postulate that the impact of sunk cost on willingness to continue a project is moderated by risk perception is supported, with results indicating that the lower degree of risk perception will cause greater effect of sunk cost on willingness to continue a project, which will lead to the sunk cost effects more easily. Therefore, the variation in willingness to continue a project as a result of variation in level of sunk cost can be significantly better explained when risk perception is introduced as a moderating factor.

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