以非線性區間迴歸與模糊積分分析線上音樂願意支付價格

Analyzing Willingness to Pay for Online Music by Nonlinear Interval Regression and Fuzzy Integral

胡宜中(Yi-Chung Hu)；雲家慧(Jia-Hui Yun)；王仁宏(Jen-Hung Wang)

非線性區間迴歸 ； 神經網路 ； 模糊積分 ； 線上音樂 ； 願意支付價格 ； Nonlinear Interval Regression ； Neural Network ； Fuzzy Integral ； Online Music ； Willingness to Pay

管理與系統

18卷3期（2011 / 07 / 01）

479 - 504

繁體中文

過去的調查發現消費者在使用線上音樂上，尚未付費的主要原因為「不願花費」與「覺得價格太貴」，顯示線上音樂使用者願意支付價格與線上音樂經營者之定價係值得探討的議題。由於消費者所願意支付的價格來自於不確定下的主觀評估，因此由上限與下限函數所構成之非線性區間迴歸模式可用以描述此類具不確定的評估值。本研究主要目的即在於以區間迴歸分析消費者對於線上音樂之每月願意支付價格。我們以兩個具單一隱藏層與單一輸出神經元之感知器發展非線性區間迴歸模式，且輸入節點對應到不同的評估構面。部份構面下的評估準則間由於交互作用的存在，故以非加法型模糊積分整合各準則的績效值以產生所對應構面的績效值。研究結果發現：一、所預測之價格區間幾乎包含了KKBOX與ezPeer+目前所訂定之月租費，顯示消費者對目前的收費標準一般而言是可以接受的；二、願意支付價格上下限差距大於一個標準差的使用者多透過付費管道取得音樂，且能接受的價格區間有較大的彈性，而透過付費管道取得音樂者願意支付較高的價格聆聽線上音樂；三、瞭解著作權知識者的平均願意支付價格均高於不瞭解以及不確定是否瞭解著作權知識者的平均願意支付價格，顯示強化對音樂著作權重視的必要性。

In the past, the investigation reveals that when consumers use online music, the major reasons they do not want to pay are ”unwilling to pay” and ”the price is too high”. It means that the issue for the online music about the consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) and the businesses' pricing is worth discussing. Due to the consumers' WTP comes from the subjective evaluation under the uncertainty, the nonlinear interval regression constructed of the functions of upper bound and lower bound can describe the uncertain estimation value. The major purpose of our study is to analyze the consumers' WTP per month for the online music by interval regression. We take two perceptrons which include single hidden layer and single output neuron to develop the nonlinear interval regression, at the same time, the input node links the different evaluation dimensions. Owing to the existence of interaction among evaluation criteria under part of dimensions, we take non-additive fuzzy integral to integrate the performance of every criterion to generate the dimension performance. Our research results are: (1) The predictive price interval between upper bound and lower bound almost includes presently monthly rental charge of KKBOX and ezPeer+. It generally reveals that the consumers can accept the charge standard at present; (2) For the difference between upper bound and lower bound of WTP is greater than one standard deviation, the consumers mostly take advantage of the channel of charge to acquire the online music, in the meantime, they can accept the price interval more flexibility and are willing to pay the higher price to listen to the online music; (3) The average WTP of the consumers who realize the copyright knowledge is higher than those who do not know and are not sure. It means to enhance the importance of music copyright is essential.

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