台商對外投資大陸之區位順序選擇行為：層級貝氏順序羅吉斯迴歸模型之應用

The Ranking of FDI Location Choice Behavior of Taiwanese Firms in China: Application of the Hierarchical Bayes Rank-Ordered Logistic Regression Model

陳靜怡(Ching-I Chen)

區位選擇順序 ； 層級貝氏模型 ； 順序羅吉斯迴歸模型 ； Rank of Location Choice ； Hierarchical Bayes Model ； Rank-Ordered Logistic Regression Model

管理與系統

18卷4期（2011 / 10 / 01）

719 - 743

繁體中文

本研究根據台灣廠商至大陸投資的區位順序選擇行爲，驗證區位優勢理論及國際化程序的觀點。典型的對外投資區位選擇研究係以區位特性做爲自變數，應變數則可分爲兩類：投資地點的總合投資量及廠商之投資地點選擇；前者無法探討個別廠商的決策行爲，後者則不易估計廠商層次的參數估計。因此，本研究根據個別廠商對陸投資地點的先後順序，搭配投資地點的區位優勢（如市場潛力、勞工便宜、交通便利、聚集經濟等）以及投資前置時間，討論廠商之投資區位偏好及學習效果。有別於以平均效果估計爲實證結果的傳統統計模型，本研究建立層級貝氏順序羅吉斯迴歸模型，整合不同分析層次的資料，用以衡量廠商間具異質性的投資偏好結構，並以廠商比例的概念說明研究假說的實證結果，符合資源基礎理論的邏輯。

This study examines the location advantage theory and the internationalization process from the ranking of locations of foreign direct investment (FDI) decided by Taiwanese firms in Mainland China. The typical approach to estimating effects of location-specific determinants usually uses two kinds of dependent variables, the aggregate amount of investment located in a location and the probability of FDI located in a location. However, the formal one is unable to capture firm-level decision behaviors, and the latter one is difficultly used to estimate firm-level parameters. Therefore, our model employs the ranks of FDI location chosen by firms as the dependent variable to evaluate firm-level preference structure of location advantages and learning effects measured by the effects of location-specific determinants such as market potential, labor cost, and transportation cost, and of the time to prepare for FDI on the ranks of FDI locations. Different from the traditional model estimating average effects, we adopt an HB ROLR model which can integrate different data sources to capture the heterogeneity among firm-level preferences regarding the features of FDI locations. This study also examines the research hypotheses with statements of a proportion of firms based on the logics of the resource-based view.

1. 任立中、林婷鈴、陳靜怡、李吉仁(2006)。高科技產業產品價值創造與行銷價值專屬化之最適資源配置。中山管理評論，14(1)，11-42。
   連結：
2. Kinoshita, Y. and Campos, N. F., “The Location Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Transition Economies,” Working Paper, Department of Economics, City University of New York,
3. Ali, F., Fiess, N., and MacDonald, R., "Do Institutions Matter for Foreign Direct Investment?" Working Paper, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, 2008
4. 經濟部統計處編，台灣地區製造業國內投資意向調查報告，台北：經濟部統計處，民國85 年
5. Cheng, L. K. and Kwan, Y. K., "What Are the Determinants of the Location of Foreign Direct Investment? The Chinese Experience," Working Paper, Department of Economics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, 1998
6. Marshall, A., Elements of Economics of Industry, London, UK: Macmillan, 1892
7. Allenby, G. M.,Arora, N.,Ginter, J. L.(1998).On the Heterogeneity of Demand.Journal of Marketing Research,35(3),384-389.
8. Allison, P. D.,Christakis, N. A.(1994).Logit Models for Sets of Ranked Items.Sociological Methodology,24(1),199-228.
9. Amram, M.,Kulatilaka, N.(1999).Real Options: Managing Strategic Investment in an Uncertain World.Boston, MA:Harvard Business School Press.
10. Andrews, R. L.,Ansari, A.,Currim, I. S.(2002).Hierarchical Bayes versus Finite Mixture Conjoint Analysis Models: A Comparison of Fit, Prediction, and Partworth Recovery.Journal of Marketing Research,39(1),87-98.
11. Bain, J. S.(1956).Barriers to New Competition: Their Character and Consequences in Manufacturing Industries.Cambridge, MA:Harvard University Press.
12. Bajo-Rubio, O.,Sosvilla-Rivero, S.(1994).An Econometric Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment Spain, 1964-89.Southern Economic Journal,61(1),20-104.
13. Barney, J.(1991).Firm Resources and Sustained Competitive Advantage.Journal of Management,17(1),99-120.
14. Benito, G. R. G.,Gripsrud, G.(1992).The Expansion of Foreign Direct Investments: Discrete Rational Location Choices or a Cultural Learning Process.Journal of International Business Studies,23(3),461-476.
15. Chadee, D. D.,Qiu, F.,Rose, E. L.(2003).FDI Location at the Subnational Level: A Study of EJVs in China.Journal of Business Research,56(10),835-845.
16. Chapman, R. G.,Staelin, R.(1982).Exploiting Rank Ordered Choice Set Data within the Stochastic Utility Model.Journal of Marketing Research,19(3),288-301.
17. Chen, H.,Chen, T. J.(1998).Network Linkage and Location Choice in Foreign Direct Investment.Journal of International Business Studies,29(3),445-467.
18. Chung, W.,Song, J.(2004).Sequential Investment, Firm Motives, and Agglomeration of Japanese Electronics Firms in the United States.Journal of Economics & Management Strategy,13(3),539-560.
19. Coughlin, C. C.,Terza, J. V.,Arromdee, V.(1991).State Characteristics and the Location of Foreign Direct Investment within the United States.Review of Economics and Statistics,68(4),675-683.
20. Daude, C.,Stein, E.(2007).The Quality of Institutions and Foreign Direct Investment.Economics & Politics,19(3),321-344.
21. Deaton, A.,Muellbauer, J.(1980).Economics and Consumer Behavior.Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press.
22. Deichmann, J.,Karidis, S.,Sayek, S.(2003).Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey: Regional Determinants.Applied Economics,35(16),1767-1778.
23. Demirbag, M.,Tatoglu, E.,Glaister, K. W.(2008).Factors Affecting Perceptions of the Choice between Acquisition and Greenfield Entry: The Case of Western FDI in an Emerging Market.Management International Review,48(1),5-38.
24. Dunning, J. H.(1980).Toward an Eclectic Theory of International Production: Some Empirical Test.Journal of International Business Studies,11(1),9-31.
25. Dunning, J. H.(1988).The Eclectic Paradigm of International Production: A Restatement and Some Possible Extensions.Journal of International Business Studies,19(1),1-31.
26. Dunning, J. H.(1995).Reappraising the Eclectic Paradigm in An Age of Alliance Capitalism.Journal of International Business Studies,26(3),461-491.
27. Glynn, W. J.(ed.),Barnes, J. G.(ed.)(1995).Understanding Services Marketing: Integrating Marketing Organizational Behavior, Operations and Human Resource Management.Chichester, UK:John Wiley & Sons.
28. Grosse, R.,Trevino, L. J.(2005).New Institutional Economics and FDI Location in Central and Eastern Europe.Management International Review,45(2),123-145.
29. Hall, R.(1992).The Strategic Analysis of Intangible Resources.Strategic Management Journal,13(2),135-144.
30. Hamel, G.(1994).The Concept of Core Competence.Competence-Based Competition,New York, NY:
31. Hansen, M. H.,Perry, L. T.,Reese, C. S.(2004).A Bayesian Operationalization of the Resource-Based View.Strategic Management Journal,25(13),1279-1295.
32. Hausman, J.,Ruud, P.(1987).Specifying and Testing Econometric Models for Rank-Ordered Data.Journal of Econometrics,34(1-2),83-104.
33. Hill, S.,Munday, M.(1992).The UK Regional Distribution of Foreign Direct Investment: Analysis and Determinants.Regional Studies,26(6),535-544.
34. Hong, J.(2007).Transport and the Location of Foreign Logistics Firms: The Chinese Experience.Transportation Research Part A,41(6),597-609.
35. Hong, S.,Wyner, R.(1990).Determinants of Product Evaluation: Effects of the Time Interval Between Knowledge of A Product's Country of Origin and Information about Its Specific Attributes.Journal of Consumer Research,17(3),277-288.
36. Johanson, J.,Vahlne, J.(1977).The Internationalization Process of the Firm - A Model of Knowledge Development and Increasing Foreign Market Commitments.Journal of International Business Studies,8(1),23-32.
37. Kerin, R. A.,Varadarajan, P. R.,Peterson, R. A.(1992).First-Mover Advantage: A Synthesis, Conceptual Framework, and Research Propositions.Journal of Marketing,56(4),33-52.
38. Knickerbocker, F. T.(1973).Oligopolistic Reaction and Multinational Enterprise.Cambridge, MA:Harvard University Press.
39. Krugman, P.(1991).Increasing Returns and Economic Geography.Journal of Political Economy,99(3),483-499.
40. Lenk, P.(2001).Bayesian Inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo.Bayesian Applications and Methods in Marketing Conference and Tutorial,Columbus, Ohio:
41. Li, J.,Rugman, A. M.(2007).Real Options and the Theory of Foreign Direct Investment.International Business Review,16(6),687-712.
42. Li, S.(2004).Location and Performance of Foreign Firms in China.Management International Review,44(2),151-169.
43. Long, J. S.,Freese, J.(2006).Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables Using Stata.College Station, TX:Stata Press.
44. Oliver, C.(1991).Strategic Responses to Institutional Processes.Academy of Management Review,16(1),145-179.
45. Penrose, E. T.(1959).The Theory of the Growth of the Firm.New York, NY:John Wiley & Sons.
46. Porter, M.(1990).The Competitive Advantage of Nations.New York, NY:Free Press.
47. Punj, G. N.,Staelin, R.(1978).The Choice Process for Graduate Business Schools.Journal of Marketing Research,15(4),588-598.
48. Rossi, P. E.,Allenby, G. M.,McCulloch, R. E.(2005).Bayesian Statistics and Marketing.Hoboken, NJ:John Wiley & Sons.
49. Rossi, P. E.,Gilula, Z.,Allenby, G. M.(2001).Overcoming Scale Usage Heterogeneity: A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach.Journal of the American Statistical Association,96(453),20-31.
50. Rossi, P. E.,McCulloch, R. E.,Allenby, G. M.(1995).The Value of Purchase History Data in Target Marketing.Marketing Science,15(4),321-340.
51. Summary, R. M.,Summary, L. J.(1995).The Political Economic of United States Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries: An Empirical Analysis.Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics,34(3),80-92.
52. Swamidass, P. M.(1990).A Comparison of the Plant Location Strategies of Foreign and Domestic Manufactures in the US.Journal of International Business Studies,21(2),301-318.
53. Tahir, R.,Larimo, J.(2004).Understanding the Location Strategies of the European Firms in Asian Countries.Journal of American Academy of Business,5(1-2),102-109.
54. Tan, B.,Vertinsky, I.(1996).Foreign Direct Investment by Japanese Electronics Firms in the United States and Canada: Modeling the Timing of Entry.Journal of International Business Studies,27(4),655-681.
55. Wei, Y. Q.,Liu, X. M.,Parker, D.,Vaidya, K.(1999).The Regional Distribution of Foreign Direct Investment in China.Regional Studies,33(9),857-867.
56. Wernerfelt, B.(1984).A Resource-Based View of the Firm.Strategic Management Journal,5(2),171-180.
57. Zarembka, P.(ed.)(1973).Frontiers in Economics.New York, NY:Academic Press.
58. Zellner, A.(1971).An Introduction to Bayesian Inference in Econometrics.NY:John Wiley & Sons.
59. Zhang, K. H.(2001).What Attracts Foreign Multinational Corporations to China?.Contemporary Economic Policy,19(3),336-346.
60. Zhao, H.,Zhu, G.(2000).Location Factors and Country-of-Origin Differences: An Empirical Analysis of FDI in China.Multinational Business Review,8(1),60-73.

1. 劉皓仁(2012)。經改與轉型：深圳區域歷史發展的空間政治經濟意象。中華行政學報，11，273-296。