以系統動態觀點預測使用者對於廢資訊用品回收意願與行為

Prediction Model for End User Intention and Behavior of Electronic Waste Recycle via System Dynamics Perspective

王貞淑(Chen-Shu Wang)；周棟祥(Tung-Hsiang Chou)；鍾典村(Tien-Tsun Chung)

電子廢棄物 ； 回收管理 ； 系統動態模擬 ； 逆物流管理 ； 電子產品回收 ； Electronic Waste ； Recycle Management ； System Dynamics Simulation ； Reverse Logistics ； Electronic Recycle

管理與系統

19卷2期（2012 / 04 / 01）

333 - 354

繁體中文

資訊產品推陳出新讓使用者的生活日趨便利，但是也縮短了資訊產品生命週期，讓廢資訊產品的管理問題（e-Waste Management）逐漸浮現。不當的e-Waste處置將造成難以復原的環境污染，目前大部份的IT產品使用者是將不知道如何處置的e-Waste屯積起來。也正因為e-Waste回收大多是由終端使用者發起，導致e-Waste管理議題充滿了不確定性，探討使用者對e-Waste的回收意願與行為是極待解決的問題。本研究參照台灣地區現行的回收機制與回收補貼政策，以系統動態模擬方法建構出使用者對於e-Waste回收意願的行為預測模擬模型（proposed simulationmodel；PSM），並進行相關動態假說驗證，包括：回收政策效能、新興資訊科技影響以及不同回收管道的探討。PSM再以台灣地區1997年到2007年實際個人電腦回收量進行模型的驗證與測試。由模擬結果顯示本研究所提出之PSM預測模型可達95%的正確性，因此三項動態假說均獲支持。也發現新興資訊技術的推出會縮短資訊產品的生命週期，甚至達一倍以上。最後由模擬結果顯示，不同的回收管道的確存在不同的延遲時間（電腦購買至送出回收的時間差），例如：學校單位（5年）與企業單位（2－3年）的時間差將近一倍。本研究所提出的PSM模型能夠全面性的了解台灣電子產業供應鏈，兼顧正向物流與逆向物流的發展。也能夠讓相關行政單位與電子產品製造商在實施e-Waste回收政策前先行模擬可能效果，做為策略施行前的參考依據。

The emergence of new information technology (IT) indeed improve living convenience of end-user but the IT product life-span is shortened accordingly and then generate a lot of electronic waste (e-Waste). Inappropriate e-Waste disposal can lead unrecoverable environment damage. Most of such e-Waste had been stocked because of end users have no idea to deal with these e-Wastes appropriately. However, e-Waste management is hard to resolved issue because of e-Waste recycle is usually trigger by IT product end user thus fulfill uncertainty. In this research, according to actual recycle mechanism and recycle refund policy in Taiwan, a proposed simulation model, PSM, is constructed by system dynamic approach for end user intention and behavior prediction of e-Waste recycles. Further, three dynamics hypotheses about e-Waste recycle are testified, including: the effect of recycle refund policy, new information technology emergence and diversity recycle channel upon recycle amount of personal computer. Then the actual PC recycle amounts in Taiwan from 1997 to 2007 are adopted for simulation experiment implement. As the experiment results shown, the prediction accuracy of PSM is about 95% and all three dynamics hypotheses are supported. The life-span of used PC is indeed shortened by emerging IT product about 50%. Additionally, the delay time which represents time-span between products sold out and achieved recycle stage is varied from diversity recycle channels even twice, such as the delay time school channel is average 5 years that twice than business channel (only 2.5 years). The proposed simulation model, PSM, reveal a systematical understanding of electronic supply chain and take forward and reverse logistical into consideration simultaneously. Additionally, PSM model enable legislations and electronic producers to verify recycle polices result prior to these policies actual implement and then decrease implement cost and strategies fault.

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