從數據科學觀點探討中華職棒球員與球團效率管理

A Study of efficiency management for players and teams in CPBL from the viewpoint of data science

10.3966/10247297201712500S007

林文斌(Wen-Bin Lin)；葉劭緯(Shao-Wei Yeh)；楊鎮浯(Cheng-Wu Yang)

黃衫球衣 ； 原住民球員 ； 二軍 ； 效率與生產力 ； yellow shirts ； aborigine players ； minor league ； efficiency and productivity

體育學報

50卷S期（2017 / 12 / 02）

91 - 107

繁體中文

緒論：在數據科學逐漸受到各領域重視之際，如何透過將數據科學的概念結合應用到運動的訓練與發展上，亦開始受到研究人員的關注，而數據科學的大數據適用於棒球運動嗎？美國職棒大聯盟強調數據分析的「魔球」、破除「貝比魯斯魔咒」與「山羊魔咒」等已提供明顯例證。本研究從數據科學觀點、結合效率與生產力概念，探討中華職業棒球聯盟，黃衫球衣是否影響球賽勝負並創造最多球迷？原住民球員的表現是否超越其他非原住民球員？二軍球員能夠穩定在一軍出賽並貢獻戰力的人力為何？等三項迷思。方法：運用資料包絡分析法、Mann-Whitney U Test、邏輯斯迴歸、信賴區間等方法求取相關結果、並提出具體建議。結果：一、2014 年球季例行賽，黃衫球衣並未左右中華職棒勝負。二、2014年中職賽場，原住民球員表現並未較佳。三、2014 年球季，二軍球員確實值得重用。在95%信賴區間，調升一軍規律出賽、穩定貢獻球隊戰力的二軍打者共計19 人、堪用率19.19%。在95% 信賴區間，調升一軍規律出賽、穩定貢獻球隊戰力的投手共計14 人、堪用率16.67%。結論：經營者 (管理者) 勇於打破成規、「重新思考」球場規則，以數據科學的觀點，透過資料庫的資訊、落實數據與效率管理，或是積極尋找球場規則中「無效率」的空隙，達到破解迷思並提升管理效能之目標。

Introduction: Because of the innovations of information technology, the topics of data science had raised more and more important nowadays, more researchers had interest in how integrate the conception and approaches of data science in order to discover useful information for their domain. How and what kinds of innovated value and useful information that data science could provide for research and training program had also become an important topic of researchers included data mining, big data, machine learning. Was Big Data suitable for use in baseball? The statistical analysis of ＂Money-ball＂, ＂Curse of the Bambino＂, and ＂Curse of the Billy Goat＂ in Major League Baseball were apparent examples. Does a yellow shirt influence of winning games and to attract fans? Do aborigine players perform better than other players? How is the actual ratio of minor league players dedicated as rosters for CPBL regular season games? This study intended to explore three major myths of CPBL from the viewpoint of data science in sports and efficiency and productivity. Methods: Following the structure of data science, we used data envelopment analysis, Mann-Whitney U Test, logistic regression, and the confidence interval to figure out the results and suggestions. Results: 1. The yellow shirt didn't influence of winning games during 2014 season. 2. The aborigine players didn't show up better performance than other players during 2014 season. 3. In 95% confidence interval, there were totally 19 minor league fielders (19.19%) promoted and dedicated to CPBL regular season rotation. In 95% CI confidence interval, there were totally 14 minor league pitchers (16.67%) promoted and dedicated to 2014 CPBL regular season. Conclusion: Base on the conception of data sciences, according to the database information, concrete data, and efficiency management, the manager should reconsider traditional rules, and actively to find out inefficient gaps, in order to break down the myths and improve management efficiency.

1. 林文斌(2015)。共同邊界與技術落差比率在運動領域之應用。體育學報，48(4)，383-398。
   連結：
2. 施致平、黃蕙娟、倪瑛蓮(2010)。中華職棒比賽勝負預測模式之建構。體育學報，43(2)，115-130。
   連結：
3. 行政院 (2010)。振興棒球運動總計畫。臺北市：作者。[Executive Yuan. (2010). Zhen xing bang qiu yun dong zong ji hua. Taipei: author]。
4. 中華職棒大聯盟 (2016a)。中華職棒觀眾人數分析。取自http://zxc22.idv.tw/ [Chinese Professional Baseball League. (2016a). Frequency analysis of attendance number in the Chinese Professional Baseball League. Retrieved from http://zxc22.idv.tw/]
5. 中華職棒大聯盟 (2016b)。數據統計。取自http://www.cpbl.com.tw/stats/toplist.html#[Chinese Professional Baseball League. (2016b). Statistical analysis. Retrieved from http://www.cpbl.com.tw/stats/toplist.html# ]
6. Agha, N.(2013).The economic impact of stadiums and teams: The case of minor league baseball.Journal of Sports Economics,14(3),227-252.
7. Anderson, T. R.,Sharp, G. P.(1997).A new measure of baseball batters using DEA.Annals of Operations Research,73,141-155.
8. Andersson, P.(Ed.),Ayton, P.(Ed.),Schmidt, C.(Ed.)(2008).Myths and facts about football: The economics and psychology of the world's greatest sport.Cambridge:Cambridge Scholar Publishing.
9. Attrill, M. J.,Gresty, K. A.,Hill, R. A.,Barton, R. A.(2008).Red shirt colour is associated with long-term team success in English football.Journal of Sports Sciences,26,577-82.
10. Baade, R. A.,Baumann, R.,Matheson, V. A.(2008).Selling the game: Estimating the economic impact of professional sports through taxable sales.Southern Economic Journal,74,794-810.
11. Baerg, A.(2017).Big data, sport, and the digital divide: Theorizing how athletes might respond to big data monitoring.Journal of Sport and Social Issues,41(1),3-20.
12. Ballouli, K.,Grady, J.,Stewart, R.(2016).The delicate art of rebranding a minor league baseball franchise: Practices, pitfalls, and payoffs of rebranding the Winston-Salem Warthogs.Sport Management Review,19,211-226.
13. Cardinale, M.,Varley, M. C.(2017).Wearable training-monitoring technology: Applications, challenges, and opportunities.International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance,12,55-62.
14. Chen, W. C.,Johnson, A. L.(2010).The dynamics of performance space of Major League Baseball pitchers 1871-2006.Annals of Operations Research,181,287-302.
15. Coates, D.,Humphreys, B. R.(2003).The effect of professional sports on earnings and employment in the services and retail sectors in US cities.Regional Science and Urban Economics,33,175-198.
16. Einolf, K. W.(2004).Is winning everything? a data envelopment analysis of Major League Baseball and the National Football League.Journal of Sports Economics,5(2),127-151.
17. García-Rubio, M. A.,Picazo-Tadeo, A. J.(2011).Does a red shirt improve sporting performance? Evidence from Spanish football.Applied Economics Letters,18,1001-1004.
18. Hadley, L.,Ruggiero, J.(2006).Final-offer arbitration in major league baseball: A nonparametric analysis.Annals of Operations Research,145,201-209.
19. Hakes, J, K.,Sauer, R. D.(2007).The moneyball anomaly and payroll efficiency: A further investigation.International Journal of Sport Finance,2(4),177-189.
20. Howard, L. W.,Miller, J. L.(1993).Fair pay for fair play: Estimating pay equity in professional baseball with data envelopment analysis.Academy of Management Journal,36(4),882-894.
21. Hudson, I.(1999).Bright lights, big city: Do professional sports teams increase employment?.Journal of Urban Affairs,21,397-408.
22. Krautmann, A.,Oppenheimer, M.(2002).Contract length and the return to performance in Major League Baseball.Journal of Sports Economics,3(1),6-17.
23. Lertwachara, K.,Cochran, J. J.(2007).An event study of the economic impact of professional sport franchises on local US economies.Journal of Sports Economics,8,244-254.
24. Lewis, H. F.,Lock, K.,Sexton, T. R.(2009).Organizational capability, efficiency, and effectiveness in Major League Baseball: 1901-2002.European Journal of Operational Research,197,731-740.
25. Lewis, H. F.,Mallikarjun, S.,Sexton, T. R.(2013).Unoriented two stage DEA: The case of the oscillating intermediate products.European Journal of Operational Research,229,529-539.
26. Lewis, H. F.,Sexton, T. R.(2004).Data envelopment analysis with reverse inputs and outputs.Journal of Productivity Analysis,21,113-132.
27. Lewis, H. F.,Sexton, T. R.(2004).Network DEA: Efficiency analysis of organizations with complex internal structure.Computers & Operations Research,31,1365-1410.
28. Lewis, M.(2004).Moneyball: The art of winning an unfair game.New York, NY:WW Norton & Company.
29. Lin, W. B.,Chen, M. Y.(2015).A study of efficiency monitoring systems for match-fixing players in the Chinese Professional Baseball League.European Sport Management Quarterly,15(3),301-322.
30. Lin, W. B.,Hsu, C. Y.,Chen, C. H.,Chen, M. Y.(2016).Offensive or defensive? Application of DEA bootstrapping methodology on Chinese Professional Baseball League.International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport,16,1032-1051.
31. Mayer-Schönberger, V.,Cukier, K.(2013).Big data: A revolution that will transform how we live, work, and think.UK:Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
32. Miceli, T. J.,Volz, B. D.(2012).Debating immortality: Application of data envelopment analysis to voting for the baseball hall of fame.Managerial and Decision Economics,33,177-188.
33. Miller, P. A.(2002).The economic impact of sports stadium construction: The case of the construction industry in St. Louis, MO.Journal of Urban Affairs,24,159-173.
34. Olson, D. L.(2001).Comparison of three multicriteria methods to predict known outcomes.European Journal of Operational Research,130,576-587.
35. Özlü, O.,Sokol, J.(2016).An optimization approach to designing a baseball scout network.European Journal of Operational Research,255,948-960.
36. Piatti, M.,Savage, D. A.,Torgler, B.(2012).The red mist? Red shirts, success and team sports.Sport in Society,15(9),1209-1227.
37. Sands, W. A.,Kavanaugh, A. A.,Murray, S. R.,McNeal, J. R.,Jemni, M.(2017).Modern techniques and technologies applied to training and performance monitoring.International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance,12,63-72.
38. Sexton, T. R.,Lewis, H. F.(2003).Two stage DEA: An application to major league baseball.Journal of Productivity Analysis,19,227-249.
39. Sueyoshi, T.,Ohnishi, K.,Kinase, Y.(1999).A benchmark approach for baseball evaluation.European Journal of Operational Research,115,429-448.
40. Surdam, D.,Brown, K.,Gabriel, P. E.(2016).Not so black and white: Race and promotion in Major League Baseball, 1951-1955.Journal of Sport and Social Issues,40(4),315-328.
41. Yeh, S. W.,Chen, M. J.,Chuang, C. T.,Lin, W. B..Performance evaluation of teams in Chinese Professional Baseball League.International Journal of Asian Business and Information Management
42. Zipp, J. F.(1996).The economic impact of the baseball strike of 1994.Urban Affairs Review,32,157-185.
43. 王子文(2011)。臺北市=Taipei，國立臺灣師範大學=National Taiwan Normal University。
44. 任立中編(2016)。大數據戰略4.0。臺北市=Taipei:前程文化=Qian Cheng Wen Hua。
45. 林文蘭(2009)。原住民成為棒球選手的社會流動與訓練體制。臺灣社會研究季刊，90，43-114。
46. 陳信宏(2009)。臺北市=Taipei，國立政治大學=National Cheng Chi University。
47. 謝邦昌、鄭宇庭(2016)。大數據概論。臺北市=Taipei:新陸=Shin Lou。

1. 胡林煥,李依穎,呂宛蓁(2019)。中華職棒轉隊球員表現研究。臺灣體育學術研究，67，19-36。
2. 許建民,宋孟遠(2020)。以攻守表現與競賽制度預測中華職棒比賽勝負。運動與遊憩研究，15(2)，41-51。
3. 許育嘉(2023)。漸進釋放責任模式結合開放教育資源於運動大數據分析課程之實踐。體育學報，56(S)，21-35。
4. 蕭秋銘,廖彩雯,陳崑銘,陳家和,高菀庭,吳重佑(2021)。球團老闆是冤大頭嗎？球員合約價值的決定因子─以美國職籃（NBA）為例。臺灣體育運動管理學報，21(2)，175-207。
5. 楊世傑,陳美燕,林文斌(2021)。知彼知己，百戰不殆：數據科學應用於棒球情蒐與技戰術分析。中華體育季刊，35(4)，227-237。
6. 詹明昇,陳鋒,陳毅,陳韋翰,陳正博(2023)。棒球比賽獲勝之關鍵打擊技戰術因素探討－以2013至2021黑豹期四強賽為例。運動表現期刊，10(1)，51-61。
7. (2024)。臺灣運動產業生產總額預測與趨勢分析之研究。體育學報，57(1)，53-75。