應用模糊決策法分析網路消費者知覺風險

Using Fuzzy Decision Making to Analyze the Perceived Risk of Internet Consumers

徐村和(Tsuen-Ho Hsu)；林凌仲(Ling-Zhong Lin)

網路購物 ； 知覺風險 ； 模糊數 ； Internet Shopping ； Perceived Risk ； Fuzzy Number

企業管理學報

58期（2003 / 09 / 01）

55 - 83

繁體中文

傳統上對於知覺風險的衡量，偏重以機率的概念加以表示，但對於網路購買決策過程中知覺風險的模糊性，卻無法有效加以解釋。因此，本文藉由探討消費者在網路購買決策過程中知覺風險的模糊性，以模糊集合理論來建構網路消費者知覺風險模糊模式，據以測度消費者的總合知覺風險值。此外並利用集群分析法將網路購物的消費者，區分為「品牌商譽群」、「推薦團體群」、「保證群」等三個集群，並對同一集群中的消費者以風險隸屬度作次區隔，用以分析同一集群的消費者，對於網路購物知覺風險的差異，解決傳統集群分析無法進一步描述消費者知覺風險問題。研究顯示：消費者認知到透過網路購物會比商店購物有較高的知覺風險；而同屬於「高知覺風險者」以「保證群」的隸屬程度最高，顯示此集群中高知覺風險的消費者，透過網路購買筆記型電腦、雷射印表機、CD-R白金片，會有較高的敏感度和不確定性。本研究結果可提供網路行銷人員擬定降低知覺風險策略的依據。

Traditionally, the perceived risk is measured in the concept of probability. However, in this way we can't get a full explanation of the vague in the process of Internet shopping. Therefore, in this paper we attempt to utilize the fuzzy theory to solve consumers’ vagueness in the perceived risk of the Internet shopping. By using fuzzy theory to construct the perceived risk's model of Internet consumers, we can measure efficiently the consumers’ aggregation risk in Internet shopping. Besides, we use cluster analysis to divide the Internet consumers into three groups: ”the Brand and Reputation group”, ”the Reference group” and ”the Warranty group”. Then we subdivide each group by risk membership grade and analyze the cognitive differences in the same group. This helps to understand the effect of perceived risk, which cannot be explained by traditional cluster analysis. The results show that the consumers perceive higher risk for Internet shopping than for in-store shopping. Belonging to high perceived risk, the warranty group has the highest value of membership function, representing the group with high perceived risk are more sensitive and uncertainty in notebook, laser printer and CD- R by Internet shopping. The results will help the Internet marketers to derive an appropriate product package offering a combination of risk reduction mechanisms for consumers.

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