以系統動態學探討臺灣行動電話系統服務產業發展結構

System Dynamics Approach for the Development of Mobile Service Providers Industry in Taiwan

蕭志同(Chih-Tung Hsiao)；何紓萍(Shu-Ping Ho)

系統動態學 ； 行動電話系統服務產業 ； 動態模擬 ； 決策分析 ； System dynamics ； Mobile service provider industry ； Dynamic simulation ； Analysis of policy

企業管理學報

85期（2010 / 06 / 01）

21 - 46

繁體中文

在知識經濟時代，資訊即時掌握是企業在不確定環境重要的成功關鍵因素，而行動通信便是掌握即時資訊的機動性工具。1997年開放行動電話民營以來，其電話系統之經營便由中華電信獨占市場，後來台灣為因應電信自由化，轉而成為競爭激烈的市場。2002年官方開放第三代行動電話營運執照，2007年政府又開放第四代WiMAX營業執照，使得整個行動電話市場成為一個多元化服務且高度競爭的環境。因此行動電話用戶數已超過2,300萬，創造出極大的產值，而市場是否已呈現飽和及未來的發展趨勢為何，皆受到政府與業者的關注。此外民眾對行動電話基地台電磁波疑慮，導致行動電話系統基礎建設與維護的困難，也造成行動電話的通訊品質受到影響，此乃政府未來推行「M台灣」的一大障礙。事實上行動電話系統服務產業的發展是一個複雜且動態的過程，它受到許多因素交互作用的影響。因此本文利用系統動態學，探討台灣行動電話系統服務產業發展動態結構，嘗試解釋它的系統行為及作相關政策的模擬。研究結果顯示，台灣行動電話系統服務產業之發展結構主要以特許執照量、基地台總量、行動電話用戶數及用戶年平均使用量等積量相互作用所構成。換言之，它們形成數個關鍵環路而成為複雜且動態的發展過程。

In the era of knowledge-driven economy, grasping information immediately is the important key factor of success in the uncertain environment for the enterprises, and mobile communication is the mobility tool to grasp instant information. In 2002, Taiwanese government opened the business licenses of the third generation (3G) mobile phone and the National Communications Commission (NCC) opened the forth generation WiMAX business licenses in 2007. The mobile phone market leads to a diversified service and more competitive circumstance. The number of mobile phone scribers has already exceeded 23 million and created great production value. The market growth and the future development trend of mobile industry are worthy of paying more attention on its future by government and mobile service providers. Furthermore, populaces afraid of the radio wave to injury them and protest the radio base stations (BTS). The results not only made mobile phone operators hard to build and maintenance BTS, but also made the network communication quality attenuation. The above problems will become a big obstacle to carry out ”Mobile Taiwan” plan in the future if this situation is sustained. In fact, the development of the mobile service provider industry is a complicated and dynamic process which is influenced by a lot of factor reciprocation. The paper utilizes the system dynamics to study the dynamic develop structure of mobile service provider industry in Taiwan, explore the systematic behavior of mobile industry and make relevant policy simulation. The study displays that the development way of the mobile service provider industry constructs significantly from some variables, such as the quality of the business license, the BTS number, the number of mobile phone subscriber and the average use number of subscriber per year. In other words, the variables form several key loops and develop the complicated and dynamic process.

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