Bilateral Trade and International Interactions: The Impact of Third-Party Blocs on Political Conflict and Cooperation

雙邊貿易與國際互動：第三國區塊對政治衝突與合作的影響

10.6683/TPSR.200306.7(1).39-91

张原卿(Yuan-Ching Chang)

衝突 ； 合作 ； 貿易 ； 第三國區塊 ； 國際互動 ； conflict,cooperation,trade,third-party bloc ； international interaction

台灣政治學刊

7卷1期（2003 / 06 / 01）

39 - 91

英文

貿易衝突模型主張本國與目標國為了保護兩國之間的貿易利得，會減少彼此的衝突並加強合作。本文延伸貿易衝突模型，檢視一個國家與第三國的貿易與衝突的改變如何影響國際關係。理論上可以證明兩點：(1)如果第三國與目標國是朋友關係，則本國增加與第三國之貿易，會減少與目標國之衝突(2)如果第三國與目標國是敵對關係，則本國增加與第三國之貿易，會增加與目標國之衝突。使用衝突與和平資料庫三十國樣本，並將它分為三個第三國區塊：西方區塊、中東區塊及東方區塊。實證分析提供證據支援理論假說。相似的推理，文中也討論檢定如果本國與第三國區塊衝突改變所產生的影響。除此之外，實證結果顯示西方區塊國家在世界政治與經濟關係扮演重要角色。

The trade-conflict model claims that two parties, designated the ”actor” and the ”target”, protect their gains from trade by enhancing cooperation and decreasing conflict. This paper extends the trade-conflict model to garner implications concerning trade and conflict interactions where third parties are involved. The theoretical propositions supported by proofs are: (1) if the actor increases trade with a third-party who is a friend of the target, then the actor will reduce conflict towards the target; (2) if the actor increases trade with a third-party who is a rival of the target, then the actor will increase conflict towards the target. A 30-couniry sample from the Conflict and Peace Data Bank (COPDAB) is used and divided into three blocs, namely, a Western bloc, a Middle Eastern bloc, and an Eastern bloc, to represent the three parties. The empirical analysis supports the hypotheses. A similar relationship is also discussed and tested for situations in which conflict increases or decreases between the actor and the third-party bloc. In addition, the evidence shows that the Western bloc countries play a central role in world political and economic relationships.

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