Responding to Typhoon Risk: Factors That Influence Taiwan's Local Elected Officials' Suspension Decisions

颱風來襲：影響台灣地方民選首長停班停課決策之因素

10.6683/TPSR.202012_24(2).0004

王文君(Wen-Jiun Wang)；李天申(Tien-Shen Li)

Uncertainties ； Protective action decision ； Accountability ； Emergency Management ； Typhoon day off ； 不確定性 ； 避災防護行動決策 ； 課責 ； 災害管理 ； 颱風假

台灣政治學刊

24卷2期（2020 / 12 / 01）

151 - 197

英文

Local elected officials are expected to advise or mandate their citizens to take protective action when their communities face imminent risk. These decisions are challenging, as they must be made with imperfect information. This study identifies the factors that influence Taiwan's local elected officials' decisions to suspend public and school operations in response to impending typhoon risk. Through an analysis of data collected from semi-structured interviews with nineteen informants, this article reveals multiple interrelated factors that influence such decisions. These factors include (1) the storm's strength, timing, speed, and path; (2) a jurisdiction's geographical, economic, and social characteristics; (3) internal stakeholder factors; (4) external stakeholder factors; and (5) the elected officials' experience, knowledge, and values. These factors contribute to the suspension decision process because officials are under pressure to meet legal, managerial, and political accountabilities. This study reveals the complexities associated with risk response decision making and contributes to our understanding of how public officials make decisions in uncertain situations.

面對天然災害的威脅，政府首長有責任警示或要求民眾採取避災措施，以保障其生命財產安全，然而由於災害風險通常具有不確定性，政府首長須在資訊不完整的情況下做出決策。台灣經常遭遇颱風侵襲，地方民選首長依法在颱風來襲之前決定是否停班停課，以降低災害風險，保護轄區民眾安全。本文旨在探索可能影響台灣地方民選首長停班停課決策的因素。本研究對十九位地方民選首長、政治幕僚、行政官員、專家等決策參與者進行半結構式訪談，歸納出五個影響因素，包括：颱風特徵、轄區的地理與社經條件、內部決策參與者的意見、外部利害關係人的壓力，以及首長個人的經驗知識與價值取向。研究結果顯示，地方首長的停班停課決策是一個動態與權衡利害關係的過程，需要同時考慮法規、管理效能以及政治聲望等多種課責壓力，本研究有助於進一步了解政府官員在面對複雜且不確定性的災害風險時的決策行為。

1. 陳正改, Joe, C.K(2020)。颱風政治學：颱風假的困惑與啟示。中華防災學刊，12(1)，57-78。
   連結：
2. Bankoff, Greg(ed.),Hilhorst, Dorothea(ed.),Frerks, George(ed.)(2004).Mapping Vulnerability: Disasters, Development and People.London, UK:Earthscan.
3. Bebbington, Mark,Zitikis, Ricardas(2016).Dynamic Uncertainty in Cost-Benefit Analysis of Evacuation Prior to a Volcanic Eruption.Mathematical Geosciences,48(2),123-148.
4. Bostrom, Ann,Morss, Rebecca,Demuth, Julie,Lazrus, Heather,Lazo, Jeffrey K.(2018).Eyeing the Storm: How Residents of Coastal Florida See Hurricane Forecasts and Warnings.International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,30,105-119.
5. Bowser, Gregg C.,Cutter, Susan L.(2015).Stay or Go? Examining Decision Making and Behavior in Hurricane Evacuations.Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development,57(6),28-41.
6. Cannon, Terry(1994).Vulnerability Analysis and the Explanation of Natural Disasters.Disaster, Development and Environment,Chichester, UK:
7. Carlson, Jean M.,Alderson, David L.,Stromberg, Sean P.,Bassett, Danielle S.,Craparo, Emily M.,Guiterrez-Villarreal, Francisco,Otani, Thomas(2014).Measuring and Modeling Behavioral Decision Dynamics in Collective Evacuation.PLoS ONE,9(2),e87380.
8. Chun, Young Han,Rainey, Hal G.(2005).Goal Ambiguity and Organizational Performance in U.S. Federal Agencies.Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory,15(4),529-557.
9. Comfort, Louise K.,Wukich, Clayton(2013).Developing Decision-Making Skills for Uncertain Conditions: The Challenge of Educating Effective Emergency Managers.Journal of Public Affairs Education,19(1),53-71.
10. Corbin, Juliet,Strauss, Anselm(2015).Basics of Qualitative Research: Techniques and Procedures for Developing Grounded Theory.Los Angeles, CA:Sage.
11. Cutter, Susan. L.(2016).The Landscape of Disaster Resilience Indicators in the USA.Natural Hazards,80(2),741-758.
12. Duncan, Robert. B.(1972).Characteristics of Organizational Environments and Perceived Environmental Uncertainty.Administrative Science Quarterly,313-327.
13. Dye, Karen Chinander,Eggers, J. P.,Shapira, Zur(2014).Trade-offs in a Tempest: Stakeholder Influence on Hurricane Evacuation Decisions.Organization Science,25(4),1009-1025.
14. Emerson, Robert M.,Fretz, Rachel I.,Shaw, Linda L.(2011).Writing Ethnographic Fieldnotes.Chicago, IL:University of Chicago Press.
15. Endsley, Mica R.,Jones, Debra G.(2011).Designing for Situation Awareness: An Approach to User-centered Design.Boca Raton, FL:CRC Press.
16. Endsley, Mica. R.(1995).Toward a Theory of Situation Awareness in Dynamic systems.Human Factors,37(1),32-64.
17. Fagel, Michael. J.(2011).Principles of Emergency Management and Emergency Operations Centers (EOC).Boca Raton, FL:CRC Press.
18. Fournier, Celeste,Campbell, Gerald(2016).Evacuation Decision-Making: Building a Model to Account for Risk-Taking Preference.Journal of Business Continuity & Emergency Planning,10(4),308-319.
19. Fuchs, Sven,Thaler, Thomas(2018).Vulnerability and Resilience to Natural Hazards.Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press.
20. Gall, Robert,Franklin, James,Marks, Frank,Rappaport, Edward N.,Toepfer, Frederick(2013).The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,94(3),329-343.
21. Hoekstra, Stephanie,Montz, Burrell E.(2017).Decisions under Duress: Factors Influencing Emergency Management Decision Making During Superstorm Sandy.Natural Hazards,88(1),453-471.
22. Hoffman, Robert R.,Crandall, Beth,Shadbolt, Nigel(1998).Use of the Critical Decision Method to Elicit Expert Knowledge: A Case Study in the Methodology of Cognitive Task Analysis.Human Factors: The Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society,40(2),254-276.
23. Huang, Jr-Chuan,Yu, Cheng-Ku,Lee, Jun-Yi,Cheng, Lin-Wen,Lee, Tsung-Yu,Kao, Shuh-Ji(2012).Linking Typhoon Tracks and Spatial Rainfall Patterns for Improving Flood Lead Time Predictions Over a Mesoscale Mountainous Watershed: Rainfall Patterns and Flood Lead Time.Water Resources Research,48(9)
24. Hutchins, Edwin(1995).Cognition in the Wild.Cambridge, MA:The MIT Press.
25. Klein, Gary. A.(2017).Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions.Cambridge, MA:The MIT Press.
26. Kolen, Bas(2016).Risk Based Decision Making for Evacuation in an Uncertain World.E3S Web of Conferences,7(4),19001.
27. Kolen, Bas,Helsloot, Ira(2014).Decision-Making and Evacuation Planning for Flood Risk Management in the Netherlands.Disasters,38(3),610-635.
28. Kolen, Bas,Helsloot, Ira(2012).Time Needed to Evacuate the Netherlands in the Event of Large-Scale Flooding: Strategies and Consequences.Disasters,36(4),700-722.
29. Lindell, Michael K.,Perry, Ronald W.(2012).The Protective Action Decision Model: Theoretical Modifications and Additional Evidence.Risk Analysis,32(4),616-632.
30. McEntire, David. A.(2005).Revisiting the Definition of "Hazard" and the Importance of Reducing Vulnerability.Journal of Emergency Management,3(4),9-11.
31. Mileti, Dennis,Sorensen, John(1990).Communication of Emergency Public Warnings: A Social Science Perspective and State-of-the-art Assessment.Oak Ridge, TN:Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
32. Mileti, Dennis,Sorensen, John,Bogard, William(1985).Evacuation Decision-Making: Process and Uncertainty.Oak Ridge, TN:Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
33. Milliken, Frances. J.(1987).Three Types of Perceived Uncertainty about the Environment: State, Effect, and Response Uncertainty.Academy of Management Review,12(1),133-143.
34. Morss, Rebecca E.,Demuth, Julie L.,Bostrom, Ann,Lazo, Jeffrey K.,Lazrus, Heather(2015).Flash Flood Risks and Warning Decisions: A Mental Models Study of Forecasters, Public Officials, and Media Broadcasters in Boulder, Colorado.Risk Analysis,35(11),2009-2028.
35. Morss, Rebecca,Lazo, Jeffrey,Demuth, Julie(2010).Examining the Use of Weather Forecasts in Decision Scenarios: Results from a US Survey with Implications for Uncertainty Communication.Meteorological Applications,17(2),149-162.
36. Moynihan, Donald. P.(2012).Extra-Network Organizational Reputation and Blame Avoidance in Networks: The Hurricane Katrina Example: Blame Avoidance in Networks.Governance,25(4),567-588.
37. Perry, Ronald. W.(1991).Managing Disaster Response Operations.Emergency Management: Principles and Practice for Local Government,Washington, D.C.:
38. Petak, William. J(1985).Emergency Management: A Challenge for Public Administration.Public Administration Review,45(special issue),3-7.
39. Rainey, Hal G.(2014).Understanding and Managing Public Organizations.San Francisco, CA:Jossey-Bass.
40. Rappaport, Edward N.,Franklin, James L.,Avila, Lixion A.,Baig, Stephen R.,Beven, John L., II,Blake, Eric S.,Burr, Christopher A.,Jiing, Jiann-Gwo,Juckins, Christopher A.,Knabb, Richard D.,Landsea, Christopher W.,Mainelli, Michelle,Mayfield, Max,McAdie, Colin J.,Pasch, Richard J.,Sisko, Christopher,Stewart, Stacy R.,Tribble, Ahsha N.(2009).Advances and Challenges at the National Hurricane Center.Weather and Forecasting,24(2),395-419.
41. Regnier, Eva(2006).Public Evacuation Decisions and Hurricane Track Uncertainty.Management Science,54(1),16-28.
42. Rodríguez, H.(ed.),Donner, W.(ed.),Trainor, J. E.(ed.)(2018).Handbook of Disaster Research.New York, NY:Springer International Publishing.
43. Romzek, Barbara S.,Dubnick, Melvin J.(1987).Accountability and the Public Service: Lessons from the Challenger Tragedy.Public Administration Review,47(3),227-238.
44. Sausgruber, Johann Thomas,Mölk, Michael,Schreiner, Ivo(2012).Evacuation or Protection? Risk Analysis as a Tool for Decision Making in the Case of a Residential Building Endangered by Rockfall.Geomechanics and Tunnelling,5(4),355-367.
45. Sorensen, John. H.(2000).Hazard Warning Systems: Review of 20 Years of Progress.Natural Hazards Review,1(2),119-125.
46. Tobin, Graham A.,Montz, Burrell E.(1997).Natural Hazards: Explanation and Integration.New York, NY:Guilford.
47. Üster, Halit,Wang, Xinghua,Yates, Justin T.(2018).Strategic Evacuation Network Design (SEND) under Cost and Time Considerations.Transportation Research Part B: Methodological,107,124-145.
48. VERBI Software(2016).VERBI Software. 2016. MAXQDA 2016. Berlin, Germany: VERBI Software. Available from maxqda.com.https://maxqda.com
49. Wang, Austin. H.-E.(2020).Efficiency over Generosity? Evidence of Electoral Accountability from Typhoon Dayoff in Taiwan.Asian Journal of Political Science,28(1),32-46.
50. Waugh, William(ed.),Kathleen, Tierney(ed.)(2007).Emergency Management: Principles and Practice for Local Government.Washington, D.C.:ICMA Press.
51. Weber, Jeffery. A.(1999).A Response to Public Administration’s Lack of a General Theory of Uncertainty: A Theoretical Vision of Uncertainty.Public Administration Quarterly,23(1),18-45.
52. Weick, Karl(1995).Sensemaking in Organizations.London, UK:Sage Publications.
53. Wood, Nathan J.,Wilson, Rick I.,Ratliff, Jamie L.,Peters, Jeff,MacMullan, Ed,Krebs, Tessa,Shoaf, Kimberley,Miller, Kevin(2017).Community Disruptions and Business Costs for Distant Tsunami Evacuations Using Maximum versus Scenario-Based Zones.Natural Hazards,86(2),619-643.
54. Yin, Robert. K.(2016).Qualitative Research from Start to Finish.New York, NY:The Guilford Press.
55. 交通部氣象局，2020，〈颱風百問〉，https://www.cwb.gov.tw/V8/C/K/Encyclopedia/typhoon/index.html，查閱時間：2021/01/08。Central Weather Bureau. 2020. “Tai feng bai wen” [Meteorology Encyclopedia]. (Accessed on January 8, 2021).
56. 交通部氣象局，2014，〈颱風資料庫〉，https://rdc28.cwb.gov.tw/TDB/public/typhoon_detail?typhoon_id=201416，查閱時間：2021/01/08。Central Weather Bureau. 2014. “Tai feng zi liao ku” [Typhoon Dataset]. (Accessed on January 8, 2021).
57. 自由時報，2018，〈新北與北基不同調林右昌：朱立倫在國外怕被責難〉，7月11日。Liberty Times, 2018, “Xin bei yu bei ji bu tong tiao lin you chang zhu li lun zai guo wai pa bei ze nan” [Marching unsynchronized: Mayor Lin suggested New Taipei City was avoiding the blame]. July 11.
58. 行政院人事行政總處，2019，〈天然災害停止上班及上課作業辦法〉，https://law.moj.gov.tw/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?PCode=S0110022，查閱時間：2021/01/08。Directorate-General of Personnel Administration, Taiwan. 2019. “Tian ran zai hai ting zhi shang ban ji shang ke zuo ye ban fa” [Regulation on the Suspension of Public Agencies and Schools due to Natural Hazards]. (Accessed on January 08, 2021).
59. 林秉煜，2013，〈民國 102 年颱風調查報告：第 15 號康芮Kong Rey 颱風（1315）〉，http://photino.cwb.gov.tw/rdcweb/lib/cd/cd02tyrp/typ/CWB_web_102/finail_102_1315_Kong-Rey_p26.pdf，查閱時間：2021/01/08。Lin, Bing-Yu. 2013. “Minguo 102 nian taifeng diaocha baogao: Di 15 hao kangrui (Kong Rey) taifeng (1315)” [2013 Typhoon Kong-Rey (No. 15) Investigation Report (No. 102–1315)]. (Accessed on January 8, 2021).
60. 高雄市政府，2020，〈本市歷次發布天然災害停止上班上課相關訊息一覽表〉，https://kpd.kcg.gov.tw/Content_List.aspx?n=413120497DC2AD9C，查閱時間：2021/01/08。Kaohsiung City Government. 2020. “Ben shi li ci fa bu tian ran zai hai ting zhi shang ban shang ke xiang guan zi xun yi lan biao” [Kaohsiung City Suspension Decision Making Record]. (Accessed on January 08, 2021).
61. 梁珮綺, Pei-Chi(2019)。梁珮綺，2019，〈北北基共識決放假柯文哲：考量首都生活圈〉，《中央社》，09月30日。Liang, Pei-Chi. 2019. “Bei bei ji gong shi jue fang jia ke wen zhe kao liang shou du sheng huo quan” [Consensus Reached, Mayor Ke: The common life circle was the key to the decision]. Central News Agency (September 30).。
62. 陳郁涵, Yu-han(2018)。台北=Taipei，國立臺灣大學大氣科學研究所=Graduate School of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University。
63. 黃椿喜，2012，〈民國 101 年颱風調查報告：第 14 號天秤Tembin 颱風（1214）〉，台北：中央氣象局氣象預報中心。http://photino.cwb.gov.tw/rdcweb/lib/cd/cd02tyrp/typ/2012/final_101-1214_Tembin_p26_fred_revision.pdf，查閱時間：2021/01/08。Huang, Zhuang-Xi. 2012. “min guo 101 nian tai feng diao cha bao gao di 14 hao tian ping tai feng (1214)” [2012 Typhoon Tembin (No.14) Investigation Report (No. 101–1214)]. Central Weather Bureau. (Accessed on January 08, 2021)
64. 楊永年, Yong-Nian(2012)。行政院人事行政總處委託研究計畫行政院人事行政總處委託研究計畫,台北=Taipei:行政院人事行政總處=Directorate-General of Personnel Administration, Executive Yuan。
65. 臺北市防災資訊網，2018，〈主持瑪莉亞颱風工作會報〉，https://www.eoc.gov.taipei/News/Details/2593cfd6-df91-4b0b-b4f2-0b7197a65c3e，查閱時間：2021/01/08。Taipei City Disaster Prevention Info Website. 2018. “Zhu Chi Ma li ya tai feng gong zuo hui bao” [News Update: Mayor Ke Hosted Maria Typhoon Situation Report Meeting]. (Accessed on January 08, 2021).
66. 聯合新聞網，2015，〈10 年來誤放多少颱風假？數據找答案〉，https://udn.com/upf/newmedia/2015_data/20150930_udntyphoon/udntyphoon/index.html，查閱時間：2021/01/08。United Daily News. 2015. “10 nian lai wu fang duo shao tai feng jia shu ju zhao da an” [Seeking the answer in Numbers: How many suspension decision mistakes have been made in the past 10 years?]. (Accessed on January 08, 2021).

1. (2024)。颱風假決策之研究：影響縣市首長決定停班與停課的因素。公共行政學報，66，43-82。