民粹主義在臺灣？網路大數據分析

Populism in Taiwan? Big Data Analysis of the Internet

10.6683/TPSR.202212_26(2).0002

劉嘉薇(Jia-Wei Liu)

民粹主義 ； 菁英 ； 公投 ； 罷免 ； 韓國瑜 ； Populism ； Elite ； Referendum ； Recall ； Han Kuo-yu

台灣政治學刊

26卷2期（2022 / 12 / 01）

65 - 126

繁體中文;英文

民粹主義在政治上蔚為風潮，然在嚴謹的學術定義上，民粹主義在臺灣嗎？網路是民粹主義的溫床，本研究分析網路大數據，瞭解民粹主義在臺灣的情況。本研究以理論為基礎提出民粹主義的關鍵字和四大面向，再輔以網路上實際出現的民粹關鍵字，提出觀察網路民粹主義測量的關鍵字，是本文對於民粹主義研究的重要貢獻。民粹主義具有「人民中心主義」的特質，與民主政治不同的卻是「攻擊菁英」、「排斥他人」以及「擁戴共同理想」，當四個面向同時發生時，可謂民粹主義盛行。整體而言，在本文研究期間（2018年九合一選舉前三個月到2021年公投結果公告日），「攻擊菁英」聲量超過七百萬，為四面向聲量最多，依序是「排斥他人」、「人民中心主義」和「擁戴共同理想」。民粹主義四面向發生在不同議題，常見的議題是：九合一選舉亂象、美豬議題和韓國瑜遭罷免。整體而言，「攻擊菁英」和「排斥他人」聲量較高，但若到個別議題觀察，「攻擊菁英」和「人民中心主義」同時發生的狀況較多。民粹主義在臺灣嗎？「人民中心主義」和「攻擊菁英」同時發生的情況已經不容小覷，然若採取更嚴格的定義，普遍聲量為「反菁英」，而非「反建制」，亦即民粹主義在網路上雖具有不少聲量，然不至於破壞民主體制。

Populism is a trend in politics, but in terms of rigorous academic definitions, is there populism in Taiwan? The Internet is a hotbed of populism. This study analyzes big data on the Internet to understand the situation regarding populism in Taiwan. This research proposes the keywords and four aspects of populism on the basis of theory, supplemented by the populism keywords that actually appear on the Internet, and proposes keywords to observe the measurement of online populism, which is an important contribution of this paper to research on populism. Populism has the characteristics of "people-centrism," but unlike democratic politics, it encompasses "attacking the elites," "ostracizing others" and "invoking the heartland." When these four aspects occur at the same time, populism can be said to be prevalent. Overall, during the research period of this paper, "attacking elites" had more than 7 million voices, with most voices coming from all four sides, followed by "ostracizing others," "people-centrism" and "invoking the heartland." All four aspects of populism occur in relation to different issues. The common issues include the chaos of the nine-in-one election, the U.S. pork issue, and the ouster of Han Kuo-yu. On the whole, "attacking the elites" and "ostracizing others" give rise to more voices, but if we observe individual issues, "attacking the elites" and "people-centrism" occur more frequently. Is there Populism in Taiwan? The simultaneous occurrence of "people-centrism" and "attacking the elites" cannot be underestimated. However, if a stricter definition is adopted, the general voice is "anti-elite" rather than "anti-establishment." That is, although populism has many voices on the Internet, it will not undermine democracy.

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