Timeline 22-Step Model for Tracking and Forecasting Public Policy Change

Graham T. T. Molitor

public policy forecasting ； forecasting methodologies ； foresight model ； deterministic patterns ； quantitative change indicators ； time series phenomena ； bellwether jurisdictions

Journal of Futures Studies

14卷3期（2010 / 03 / 01）

1 - 12

英文

Things don't just happen. A cascade of incremental developments and pressures coalesce and help to shape destiny. Basically, this article probes and describes ”causes and effects.” Fully mapped out and deployed, this 22-step rubric of change pattern strives to assemble an array of forces that cumulatively plot and reveal impending public policy change. These constructs of change manifest fundamental quantitatively measured components assembled into arrays of integral sub-set steps that drive change of most any sort. Many of the change drivers presented apply to forecasting matters other than public policy.