應用模糊語意計算於新產品開發專案評估模式建構之研究

Applying Fuzzy Linguistic Computation on Evaluation Model for NPD Projects

陳振東(Chen-Tung Chen)；傅品溱(Pen-Chen Fu)；洪偉展(Wei-Zhan Hung)

新產品開發專案 ； 多評準決策 ； 模糊理論 ； 區間二元語意變數 ； New product development project ； Multiple criteria decision making ； Fuzzy set theory ； Interval 2-tuple linguistic variable

科技管理學刊

20卷4期（2015 / 12 / 01）

29 - 58

繁體中文

近年來，由於全球金融風暴的影響和歐債危機的發生使得全球的經濟景氣受到嚴重打擊，因而企業必須面臨更為嚴峻的經營挑戰。為了提高競爭優勢以確保在激烈的競爭環境中獲利，企業必須利用科技創新觀念與技術持續推出新的產品或服務，藉以增加營收並強化競爭力。然而，新產品開發過程可能面臨未來技術與市場的不確定性，因此有效評估新產品開發專案的成功可能性，已經成為企業相當重視的議題之一。事實上，在新產品開發專案成功可能性的評估過程中亦涉及評估人員的主觀性與評估指標的質化性，使得評估人員更不易進行決策分析。因此本研究乃利用區間二元模糊語意變數為基礎，提供彈性的語意評估方式讓評估人員可以較真實且完整地表達其主觀的意見。進而，結合模糊理論與多評準決策方法建構系統化的新產品開發專案成功可能性評估模式。除此之外，本研究提出「共識距離法」以衡量多位專家評估值的共識程度，並考量最終決策者的偏好，分別計算不同心態下的評估結果，以增加評估結果的可靠性。藉由個案公司的實證分析結果顯示，該新產品專案成功可能性介於「高」與「很高」之間。同時指出評估構面的改善優先順序分別為「產品商業化」、「研發技術」、「市場行銷」、「新產品開發專案團隊」。經由實證結果顯示，本研究所提出的語意決策評估模式不僅具有理論基礎，同時也具有實務的應用價值。

In recent years, the enterprises must face the market challenge more severely because the global financial storm and European debt crisis happened. For surviving in the competitive market, the enterprises should provide the new products or services continuously to increase their competitiveness. However, the process of new product development (NPD) may face the uncertainties of the market and technology development in the future. In additional, the subjective judgments of experts and the qualitative characteristics of evaluation criteria will influence the success possibility of NPD projects. Therefore, an effective evaluation model of NPD projects has become an important issue for enterprises. In this study, a systematic evaluation model of NPD project is proposed by combining interval 2-tuple linguistic variables with group multiple criteria decision-making method. Moreover, the distance consensus method is used in this study to measure the consensus degree of the evaluation opinions of experts. And then, the final decision maker's preference is considered by calculating the aggregated evaluation results with different attitudes to increase the acceptance degree of evaluation results. Finally, a case study is implemented by using the proposed method. The analysis results of the case study show that the successful possibility of the NPD project for this company is between ＂high＂ and ＂very high＂. The improvement priority of dimensions is suggested as ＂product commercialization＂, ＂R&D (Research and Development) techniques＂, ＂marketing＂ and ＂NPD teams＂. According to the results of the case study, it shows that the proposed method not only can provide the theoretical way to measure the successful possibility of NPD project but also provide a practical value for evaluating the NPD project.

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