Applying Grey Model for International Fashion Color Trend Forecasting

10.30016/JGS.201112.0005

Li-Xia Chang；Wei-Dong Gao；Ming-Wang Shi；Ru-Ru Pan

GM(1,1)model ； Fashion color forecasting ； 1 AGO ； Forecasting accuracy

Journal of Grey System

14卷4期（2011 / 12 / 01）

159 - 163

英文

This paper made a study on fashion color forecasting by applying GM (1,1) model. It took successive five years fashion colors' suggestion ratio as the time series. Results shows that the GM(1,1) model would provide promising predicting effect with minimum accuracy ratio of 56.46% and maximum accuracy of 88.68%. Besides the 1AGO data processing, we also apply 2AGO data processing to discuss the forecasting accuracy of this model. Results show that the forecasting with 2AGO data processing can predict the future color trend with maximum accuracy ratio of 92.27% and the minimum ratio 79.62%, P value 1.0000. It can be taken as the promising one prediction model for future color trends forecasting.