Applying GM(0,N) and GSM to Explore Electricity Energy's Policy in Taiwan

Kuo-Tsung Yang；Chung-Jen, Chin；Chen-Hua Han

Electricity power ； Energy generation and purchased ； GM(0,N) ； Grey structure modeling

Journal of Grey System

22卷1期（2019 / 09 / 01）

1 - 8

英文

At present, there are seven kinds of electric powers in our country, including nuclear energy, pumped storage hydropower, coal, fuel, gas, cogeneration and renewable energy. Among them, coal, fuel and gas have a greater impact on air pollution, while nuclear energy, pumped and storage hydropower, cogeneration and renewable energy have less impact, but nuclear power plants have the problems such as safety and disposal of nuclear waste which are vulnerable to the people. Since Taiwan is an island country lack of natural resources, 98% of its energy must be imported, which is deeply affected by the international situation. In response to the global climate and environmental change issues, the government has put the concept of ＂environmental protection＂ into the power energy policy, such as paying attention to carbon emissions and reducing pollution sources. However, policy implementation must be taken into account the reality and relevant supporting measures. No shortage of electricity is the critical consideration. The paper uses the energy generation and purchased data of Taipower over the years to derive the energy weight ratio of electricity by the GM(0,N) method of the grey system theory and find its relevance with grey structure modeling. It finds empirically the results: The top 3 weights of power system energy generation and purchased are ＂pumped storage hydropower＂, ＂cogeneration＂ and ＂renewable energy＂. The top 3 correlations of power system energy generation and purchased are ＂burning coal＂, ＂gas＂ and ＂nuclear energy＂, and the correlation between ＂fuel＂ and ＂cogeneration＂ is similar and highly replaceable.