Integrated Time-varying Grey Verhulst Model and Its Application

Guo-Yan Zou；Yong Wei

Verhulst model ； Integrated ； Time-varying ； Prediction model

Journal of Grey System

22卷1期（2019 / 09 / 01）

9 - 16

英文

The complexity of the prediction modeling objects leads to the diversity of the form of the grey model. In order to further enhance the adaptability of the grey prediction model to the original data, the integrated time-varying grey Verhulst model is proposed in this paper. This model combines the characteristics of time terms in the approximately inhomogeneous exponential series model and the time-varying parameter Verhulst model, and introduces time-dependent polynomial function on the basis of the traditional time-varying grey Verhulst model to enhance the adaptability of the model. Numerical method is used to solve the whitening differential equation of the model, the modeling steps are given, and the properties of the model are discussed. At the end of this paper, the effectiveness of the integrated time-varying grey Verhulst model is verified by examples. The results show that the model can improve the prediction simulation accuracy within a larger range of applicability, and it has positive effects on optimizing the structure and improving the universality of grey model.