潛在成長模式在體育運動領域之應用

Applications of Latent Growth Modeling in Physical Education and Sports

10.6162/SRR.2015.135.05

徐茂洲(Mao-Chou Hsu)

縱斷面 ； 截距因子 ； 斜率因子 ； longitudinal ； intercept ； slope factor

大專體育

135期（2015 / 12 / 31）

53 - 66

繁體中文

潛在成長模式逐漸受到體育領域重視，未來在體育運動領域也將有越來越多學者投入潛在成長模式的應用。因此本文的主要內容將分別探討潛在成長模式在研究設計上的要求、在實務上應用較為廣泛的模型以及潛在成長模式在體育運動研究領域應用的概況。本研究目的是探討潛在成長模式在體育領域相關論文，希望透過分析、歸納、整理等方法，瞭解體育領域應用潛在成長模式發表之論文。並介紹潛在成長模式與傳統變異數分析、多元迴歸分析、多層次成長分析等的差別、潛在成長模式介紹、潛在成長模式在研究設計上的要求。本研究結語：近年來體育運動相關的國內及國際學術期刊對研究方法論日益重視，身為體育運動的學術研究者，除了需要與時俱進的瞭解相關統計分析技術的進步之外，更重要的是具備統計分析方法的正確應用時機。經由本文相關的文獻分析，研究者希冀體育領域學者透過本文能知悉潛在成長模式種類與理論探討。

Latent growth modeling has been receiving attention as a methodology for use in sports-related research. In the future, more and more scholars in sports will apply a latent growth model within their research. Therefore, this article focuses on the research design requirements of latent growth modeling and the widely used models in practice, and provides an overview of latent growth modeling as applied to sports research. The purpose of this article is to explore the applications of latent growth model in the field of physical exercise. Through the analysis, induction, and organization of published papers, hopefully we may understand more about its application within the field of physical exercise. Furthermore, this paper compares the differences in research design among four models: the latent growth model, traditional variance analysis, multiple regression analysis, and multilevel growth analysis. This paper concludes that recently the domestic and international academic journals in sports have been paying more and more attention to research methodology. A sports researcher should be equipped with the correct statistical applications, in addition to understanding the progress of those related statistical techniques. After reviewing the relevant literature, we hope that the scholars in physical exercise will become familiar with this growth model and its theoretical interpretations.

1. 施致平、李俞麟、羅晨溦、謝靜瑜(2012)。世代分析：教育部體適能政策推展績效之追蹤評估。教育科學研究期刊，57(3)，59-89。
   連結：
2. 徐茂洲(2012)。結構方程模式在體育領域論文之應用（2004 ~ 2010）。大專體育，122，24-31。
   連結：
3. 徐茂洲(2012)。以潛在成長模式驗證中華職棒大聯盟19 ~21 年薪資成長變化之研究。運動休閒管理學報，9(1)，21-38。
   連結：
4. 陳美燕、葉允棋(2013)。體育統計分析與層次研究概念之介紹。體育學報，46(1)，1-12。
   連結：
5. Aguinis, H.,Pierce, C. A.,Bosco, F. A.,Muslin, I. S.(2009).First decade of organizational research methods: Trends in design, measurement, and dataanalysis topics.Organizational Research Methods,12(1),69-112.
6. Bauer, D. J.(2011).Evaluating individual differences in psychological processes.Current Directions in Psychological Science,20(2),115-118.
7. Bauer, D. J.,Gottfredson, N. C.,Dean, D.,Zucker, R. A.(2013).Analyzing repeated measures data on individuals nested within groups: Accounting for dynamic group effects.Psychological Methods,18(1),1-14.
8. Beck, N.,Brüderl, J.,Woywode, M.(2008).Momentum or deceleration? Theoretical and methodological reflections on the analysis of organizational change.Academy of Management Journal,51(3),413-435.
9. Biesanz, J. C.,Deeb-Sossa, N.,Papadskis, A. A.,Bollen, K. A.,Curran, P. J.(2004).The role of coding time in estimating and interpreting growth curve models.Psychological Methods,9(1),30-52.
10. Birren, J. E.(Ed.),Schaie, K. W.(Ed.)(1990).Handbook of the psychology of aging.San Diego, CA:Academic Press.
11. Byrne, B. M.(2006).Structural equation modeling with EQS: Basic concepts, applications and programming.Mahwah, NJ:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
12. Byrne, B. M.(2010).Structural equation modeling with AMOS: Basic concept, applications, and programming.London:Routledge.
13. Byrne, B. M.,Lam, W. W.,Fielding, R.(2008).Measuring patterns of change in personality assessments: An annotated application of latent growth curve modeling.Journal of Personality Assessment,90(6),536-546.
14. Chalip, L.(2006).Toward a distinctive sport management discipline.Journal of Sport Management,20,1-21.
15. Collins, L. M.(2006).Analysis of longitudinal data: The integration of theoretical model, temporal design, and statistical model.Annual Review of Psychology,57,505-528.
16. Collins, L. M.,Horn, J. L.(1991).Best methods for the analysis of change: Recent advances, unanswered questions, future directions.Washington, DC:American Psychological Association.
17. Conroy, D. E.,Coatsworth, J. D.(2004).The effects of coach training on fear of failure in youth swimmers: A latent growth curve analysis from a randomized, controlled trial.Journal of Applied Developmental Psychology,25(2),193-214.
18. Conroy, D. E.,Coatsworth, J. D.,Fifer, A. M.(2005).Testing dynamic relations between perceived competence and fear of failure in young athletes.European Review of Applied Psychology,55(2),99-110.
19. Cudeck, R.,Harring, J. R.(2007).Analysis of nonlinear patterns of change with random coefficient models.Annual Review of Psychology,58,615-637.
20. Curran, P. J.,Bauer, D. J.(2011).The disaggregation of within-person and between-person effects in longitudinal models of change.Annual Review of Psychology,62,583-619.
21. Curran, P. J.,Hussong, A. M.(2003).The use of latent trajectory models in psychopathology research.Journal of Abnormal Psychology,112(4),526-544.
22. Curran, P. J.,Obeidat, K.,Losardo, D.(2010).Twelve frequently asked questions about growth curve modeling.Journal of Cognition and Development,11(2),121-136.
23. Duncan, S. C.,Duncan, T. E.,Strycker, L. A.,Chaumeton, N. R.(2007).A cohort-sequential latent growth model of physical activity from ages 12 to 17 years.Annals of Behavioral Medicine,33(1),80-89.
24. Duncan, S. C.,Seeley, J. R.,Gau, J. M.,Strycker, L. A.,Farmer, R. F.(2012).A latent growth model of adolescent physical activity as a function of depressive symptoms.Mental Health and Physical Activity,5(1),57-65.
25. Duncan, T. E.,Duncan, S. C.,Strycker, L. A.,Li, F.,Alpert, A.(1999).An introduction to latent variable growth curve modeling: Concepts, issues, and applications.Mahwah, NJ:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
26. Ferrer, E.,McArdle, J. J.(2010).Longitudinal modeling of developmental changes in psychological research.Current Directions in Psychological Science,19(3),149-154.
27. Fleming, C. B.,Harachi, T. W.,Cortes, R. C.,Abbott, R. D.,Catalano, R. F.(2004).Level and change in reading scores and attention problems during elementary school as predictors of problem behavior in middle school.Journal of Emotional and Behavioral Disorders,12(3),130-144.
28. Hancock, G. R.,Mueller, R. O.(2006).Structural equation modeling: A second course.Greenwich, CT:Information Age.
29. Heck, R. H.,Thomas, S. L.(2009).An introduction to multilevel modeling techniques.New York:Routledge.
30. Lance, C. E.,Vandenberg, R. J.,Self, R. M.(2000).Latent growth models of individual change: The case of newcomer adjustment.Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,83(1),107-140.
31. Lane, A. M.(2012).Psychology and the journal of sports sciences: Getting published.Journal of Sports Sciences,30(13),1325-1327.
32. Louvet, B.,Gaudreau, P.,Menaut, A.,Genty, J.,Deneuve, P.(2009).Revisiting the changing and stable properties of coping utilization using latent class growth analysis: A longitudinal investigation with soccer referees.Psychology of Sport and Exercise,10(1),124-135.
33. Marcoulides, G. A.(Ed.)(1998).Modern methods for business research.Mahwah, NJ:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
34. McArdle, J. J.(2009).Latent variable modeling of differences and changes with longitudinal data.Annual Review of Psychology,60,577-605.
35. Mullineaux, D. R.,Bartlett, R. M.,Bennett, S.(2001).Research design and statistics in biomechanics and motor control.Journal of Sports Sciences,19(10),739-760.
36. Nesselroade, J. R.(Ed.),Cattell, R. B.(Ed.)(1988).Handbook of multivariate experimental psychology.New York:Plenum Press.
37. Rao, C. R.(1958).Some statistical methods for comparison of growth curves.Biometrics,14(1),1-17.
38. Raudenbush, S. W.(2001).Comparing personal trajectories and drawing causal inferences from longitudinal data.Annual Review of Psychology,52,501-525.
39. Raykov, T.,Marcoulides, G. A.(2006).A first course in structural equation modeling.Mahwah, NJ:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
40. Roesch, S. C.,Norman, G. J.,Villodas, F.,Sallis, J. F.,Patrick, K.(2010).Intervention-mediated effects for adult physical activity: A latent growth curve analysis.Social Science and Medicine,71(3),494-501.
41. Rogelberg, S. G.(Ed.)(2004).Handbook of research methods in industrial and organizational psychology.London:Blackwell.
42. Rovine, M. J.,Molenaar, P. C. M.(1998).The covariance between level and shape in the latent growth curve model with estimated basis vector coefficient.Methods of Psychological Research,3,94-107.
43. Shilbury, D.(2011).A bibliometric study of citations to sport management and marketing journals.Journal of Sport Management,25(5),423-444.
44. Shilbury, D.,Rentschler, R.(2007).Assessing sport management journals: A multi-dimensional examination.Sport Management Review,10,31-44.
45. Shin, J.(2007).Austin, TX,University of Texas.
46. Singer, J. D.,Willett, J. B.(2003).Applied longitudinal data analysis: Modeling change and event occurrence.New York:Oxford University Press.
47. Stoel, R. D.,van den Wittenboer, G.,Hox, J.(2004).Including time-invariant covariates in the latent growth curve model.Structural Equation Modeling,11(2),155-167.
48. Tucker, L. R.(1958).Determination of parameters of a functional relation by factor analysis.Psychometrika,23(1),19-23.
49. Winter, E. M.,Eston, R. G.,Lamb, K. L.(2001).Statistical analyses in the physiology of exercise and kinanthropometry.Journal of Sports Sciences,19(10),761-775.
50. 余民寧(2006)。潛在變項模式：SIMPLE 的應用。臺北市=Taipei, Taiwan:高等教育=Higher Education。
51. 吳明隆(2013)。結構方程模式：潛在成長曲線分析。臺北市=Taipei, Taiwan:五南=Wunan。
52. 李茂能(2009)。圖解AMOS 在學術研究上之應用。臺北市=Taipei, Taiwan:五南=Wunan。
53. 邱皓政(2003)。結構方程式模式：LISREL 的理論技術與應用。臺北市=Taipei, Taiwan:雙葉書廊=Yehyeh。
54. 徐茂洲(2013)。以潛在成長模式分析2001 ~ 2012臺灣旅外職棒球員人數成長變化之研究。中華理論結構模式學會雜誌，6(1)，1-23。
55. 張偉豪(2013)。結構方程模型於時間序列與重複量實驗的應用。高雄市=Kaohsiung, Taiwan:三星=Tristar。
56. 楊志堅、劉心筠、楊志強(2004)。縱貫研究以潛在成長模式分析之樣本數與檢定力研究。教育與心理研究，27(3)，603-626。
57. 謝俊義(2010)。HLM 多層次線性分析─理論、方法與實務。臺北市=Taipei, Taiwan:鼎茂=Tingmao。