臺北市道路擁擠路段預測之分析

Predicting of Road Traffic Congestion in Taipei City

鍾惠存(Hui-Chun Chung)；黃庭裕(Steve Huang)；張惠琳(Huei-Lin Chang)；陳囿全(Yu-Chung Chen)

預測 ； 交通擁塞 ； Prediction ； Traffic Congestion

都市交通

33卷2期（2018 / 12 / 01）

36 - 48

繁體中文

道路擁擠成為大多數國家的主要交通問題之一。道路擁擠對經濟和人民生活有重大影響，如果可以提前預測道路擁擠，民眾將可採取措施避免，例如使用公共運輸，或者重新安排旅行計畫或路線。2006年以來，臺北市已經發布並提供即時道路資訊、公車動態資訊(e-BUS)、即時停車資訊，展示於網頁及手機APP界面上，然而提供即時交通資訊並不能完全滿足現今交通管理的需求，交通預測對目前交通管理上解決交通問題更顯得重要，所以我們建立了運輸資訊平臺(TTCX)以收集各種來源的交通訊息，根據平臺上交通數據以統計和分析方式找出用路人使用道路的行為模式，透過這種行為模式（如平常日、例假日和特殊節日）進行交通預測，為交通管理者提供資訊，而預測的情形將再透過未來真實的交通數據重新評估校對，使預測行為更加準確，因此，我們透過營運中的運輸資訊平臺(TTCX)預測2018年中國新年前的道路擁塞路段及時間，道路尖峰時段擁塞道路主要是幹道及高架道路，這些擁塞道路為忠孝東路、南京西路、南京東路及長安西路等為主的幹道，我們透過網站和新聞媒體的訊息發佈，使道路使用者避免進入這些路段，而減少過年期間交通擁塞情形，經過事實的分析後，我們的方法是具體及有效的，這將改善本市道路擁塞情形。

Traffic congestion is one of the major problems in most countries. Traffic jams have a significant impact on the economy and people's life. If congestion can be predicted in advance, users can take steps to avoid them, such as using mass transit, or rearranging their travel plans or routes. Since 2006, Taipei City has released and delivered real-time traffic information, road speed information, dynamic bus information (e-bus), instant parking lots information, and showed with web and mobile phone interfaces. However, providing real-time traffic information does not meet our traffic management needs. The traffic prediction is very important for transportation engineers to solve the traffic issue. Today we have Taipei Transportation Converge and Exchange Platform (TTCX) to collect traffic information from a variety of sources. According to the traffic data of the platform, statistical and analytical methods are used to find out the behavior patterns of the users using the roads. Therefore, we were predicting the road congestion and time before Chinese New Year 2018 by operating TTCX. The congestion roads in peak hour are the main arterial and elevated roads in Taipei. These congestion roads are Zhongxiao East Road, Nanjing West Road, Nanjing East Road, Chang'an West Road etc as the main roads. We publish information to user. After the analysis of the facts, Our method is specific and effective.

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