總體經濟變數對死亡率改善之實證研究

The Impact of Macroeconomics Variables for Mortality Estimation

繆震宇(Jerry C.Y. Miao)；田峻吉(Joseph J. Tien)；陳綉中(Shiou Chung Chen)

死亡率 ； Lee-Carter模型 ； 長壽風險 ； mortality ； Lee-Carter model ； longevity risk

保險專刊

33卷3期（2017 / 09 / 01）

205 - 228

繁體中文

估計人口死亡率是重要的課題，過去文獻常用Lee-Carter模型預測死亡率卻忽略總體經濟變數之影響。本文目的是加入Lee-Carter模型的死亡率指數kt後，探討總體經濟變數對死亡率之影響。採用20個OECD國家實證資料，結果發現在加入死亡率指數後，部分總體經濟變數：GDP成長率與失業率對死亡率仍具顯著影響。在個別國家迴歸結果，部分國家在加入死亡率指數kt後，總體經濟變數仍有解釋能力，但在高社會福利國家，總體經濟變數並不能解釋死亡率的波動。

To estimate the mortality rate is an important issue. While previous papers often use Lee-Carter Model to estimate the mortality rate, they ignore the impact of macro-economic variables on mortality estimation. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between macro-economic variables, the κt obtained from Lee-Carter Model and the mortality rate. We use data of the 20 OECD countries. Empirical results show that some macro-economic variables such as GDP and unemployment rate have a significant effect on mortality for these 20 OECD countries. Specifically, the macro-economic variables remain explanatory on the mortality after incorporating the mortality index κt in some countries when regressed the 20 OECD countries separately. However, in high social welfare countries, all the macro-economic variables have no effect on the mortality.

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