結合模糊理論及馬可夫鏈評估顧客價值

Modeling Customer Value Using Fuzzy Theory and Markov Chain

10.6382/JIM.200901.0006

葉進儀(Jinn-Yi Yeh)；吳泰熙(Tai-Hsi Wu)；李凱平(Kai-Ping Li)

顧客終身價值 ； 模糊理論 ； 馬可夫鏈 ； RFM模型 ； Customer Lifetime Values ； Fuzzy Theory ； Markov Chain ； RFM Model

資訊管理學報

16卷1期（2009 / 01 / 01）

109 - 134

繁體中文

隨著資訊技術的發展，企業與顧客之間的活動關係也日趨複雜，企業行銷資源的配置與行銷顧客的抉擇，在激烈的競爭商場中也愈形重要，如何將有限資源妥善分配，減少行銷預算浪費，應用顧客價值分析乃成為重要的課題之一。本研究結合模糊理論(fuzzy theory)、馬可夫鏈(Markov chain)、和RFM(recency, frequency, monetary; RFM)模式，配合折現模式來計算顧客終身價值(customer lifetime values)，其中模糊理論及RFM模型定義顧客之購買狀態，馬可夫鏈則推算顧客在每期購買狀態改變的機率，然後推估出顧客在每期交易的轉換機率，再結合產品的收益與成本資料，算出顧客在各期對公司的利潤貢獻，最後將各期的利潤貢獻折現加總，計算出各種購買狀況下的顧客價值，利用此顧客價值就可指出哪些是對企業有利的顧客。模型的評估乃利用某醫療藥品器材商之實際銷售資料，與其他學者提出之顧客價值模型比較，結果發現本研究所提之模型評估結果優於其他模型。

Because of progressive development of information technology, the relationship between enterprises and customers becomes more complicated. Therefore, it is an important issue for resource allocation among customers. To allocate resources efficiently and reduce costs for marketing budget, customer value analysis turns to be an important tool. In this paper, fuzzy theory, Markov chain and RFM model are integrated to evaluate customer lifetime values. This approach calculates the profit contribution of customers in every purchasing situation. Firstly, customer purchasing state is updated contiguously by fuzzy theory and RFM model with transition matrix which represents the probabilities among purchasing states. Then the profit contribution of each period is computed by using revenue and cost data. Finally, the profit contribution of each customer is accumulated through some discounting consideration. This will construct the final customer lifetime values. The proposed method has been evaluated by using sales records from a well known medical company in central Taiwan. The proposed model outperforms other methods and obtains a good accurate rate for estimating of customer lifetime values.

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