由系統動態觀點建構網路犯罪預測模擬：以網路詐欺與妨害電腦使用罪行為例

A Cybercrime Simulation Model for Cyber Fraud and Offense Computer Usage Crime Prediction from System Dynamic Prediction

10.6382/JIM.200910.0121

王貞淑(Chen-Shu Wang)；鍾典村(Tien-Tsun Chung)

網路犯罪 ； 系統動態模擬 ； 犯罪黑數 ； 網路犯罪預測 ； Cybercrime ； system dynamics simulation ； dark crime parameter ； cybercrime prediction

資訊管理學報

16卷4期（2009 / 10 / 01）

121 - 140

繁體中文

網際網路的便利性大幅的改善了使用者生活品質，像是財務金融或是線上購物的應用，都讓使用者省下不少親自臨櫃辦理的麻煩。但是隨之而來的網路安全考量，也往往讓使用者必需承受個人資訊外洩的風險。根據傳統的犯罪理論，網路犯罪不只是犯罪者個人行為，更涉及到許多因素間的交互回饋影響，是一個典型的系統動態複雜問題。本研究以系統動態模擬方法，分別建構出網路犯罪問題的攻擊與防守兩個構面，提供網路犯罪問題的核心結構，並進行網路犯罪參數的預測。最後，再以台灣地區民國88年至96年間，網路詐欺及妨礙個人電腦使用犯罪行為的實際犯罪資料，進行模型的測試。由模擬結果顯示，本研究所提出的研究模型平均可達80%以上的預測正確率。此外，也揭露了許多網路犯罪黑數的變化，包括：再犯率及受害者的報案率等。透過本研究所提出的預測模型及模擬結果，能夠提供相關網路犯罪政策擬定前的測試，對於傳統犯罪理論也能進行補強，幫助瞭解及預防新興的網路犯罪行為。

The living quality of users has been improved by the convenience of Internet, such as the applications of online shopping and financial transaction are enable user to reduce their valuable time without counter transactions. However, such convenience usually accompanies with cybercrime concerns and users are suffering the risks of personal information leak. According to traditional crime theory, crime behavior is a dynamic systemically complex problem which is more than just a simple personal behavior. Various factors, such as networking security, government policy and their feedback influence, are all related with cybercrime which is a getting serious issue. Therefore, to realize core structure of cybercrime, a simulation model has been proposed in this research based on the methodology of system dynamics from attack and defense perspectives respectively. Finally, some simulation experiments are implemented by using actual criminal data of Taiwan from 1991 to 2007. As the simulation result demonstrated, the accurate prediction rate of the proposed model can be achieved to 80%. Additionally, particular dark cybercrime parameters, such as report rate, are revealed and some interesting patterns are also discovered. Furthermore, the simulation model can be regarded as a pilot-test for the implementation of actual crime-related policy. Finally, the simulation results can also be took into account for traditional crime theory refinement.

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