不動產投資決策分析－淨現值法、內部報酬率與資本化率法之應用

Real Estate Investment Analysis-Using the Net Present Value Method, the Internal Rate of Return Method and the Capitalization Rate Method

秦銘璟(Ming-Chin Chin)；陳珺叡(Chun-Rey Chen)

不動產投資 ； 淨現值法 ； 內部報酬率 ； 資本化率 ； 敏感度分析 ； Real Estate Investment ； the Net Present Value Method ； the Internal Rate of Return Method ； the Capitalization Rate ； Sensitivity analysis

真理財經學報

27期（2015 / 12 / 01）

1 - 21

繁體中文

評估不動產投資效益之相關研究面向廣泛，本文以一預售個案為例，運用財務方法中之淨現值法、內部報酬率法和資本化率，計算投資持有期間之預期報酬率。同時以租金年成長率與資本利得率進行敏感度分析，以收穩健評估之效。此外，依店面、商辦，和住宅分別計算資本化率之收益價格，計算出受之合理價格。政府實際登錄制度之實施，是為健全房市發展，努力讓房價恢復到正常合理的水準。本文之收益型評估模型可設算不動產投資應有的價值區間，不僅可協助投資人降低資訊不對稱的風險，也可提供相關單位，作為判定異常交易之參考。

The focus of this paper is on assessing the rate of return of real estate investment. Generally, real estate investments are defined as real estate that generates income or is otherwise intended for investment purposes rather than as a primary residence. This paper applies the net present value (NPV) method, the internal rate of return (IRR) method, and the capitalization rate (CAP rate) to assess the return of real estate investment. A pre-sale case located at New Taipei City, Taiwan is examined. We clarify the economic conditions, such as the reasonable length of investment and the capitalization rate, which may favor the success of real estate investment. The economic analysis in this paper will help investors to understand what they can reasonably expect from their investing target. The results in this paper show that the investor can expect to garner 100% return from the investment in 15 years as long as the interest rates less than 3.175%. Also, the sensitivity analysis further demonstrates to be worth investing of this case.

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