農糧生產面衝擊、投機性交易與其適足存量

Food Production Shocks, Speculative Trading and the Adequacy of Foodgrain Buffer Stock

陳至還

緩衝存量 ； 投機 ； 多重均衡解 ； buffer stock ； speculation ； multiple equilibria

真理財經學報

27期（2015 / 12 / 01）

35 - 52

繁體中文

回顧全球糧食供給體系的轉變趨向，而後衍生出新的糧食安全顧慮，為因應新的情勢轉變，缺乏糧食自主國家均應重新檢視其農糧存量的適足性，以確保農糧價格穩定及糧食安全。本文提出一個穩定糧價的緩衝存量模型，模型中假設在既定的糧食短缺衝擊下農糧市場將引發投機性需求，進而嚴重挑戰農糧當局的價格穩定措施，本分析將有助於理解糧食供應短缺與市場投機活動交互影響下農糧價格穩定制度的市場過程及相關機制，農糧當局可依據未來農糧市場可能面臨的短缺性衝擊大小及相關參數來調整農糧的適足存量，以確保非常時期的糧價穩定。

The paper begins with an overview of the changing nature of global food system and an exposition of the concept of food insecurity. It's time to rethinking how to build up and keep a sizeable buffer stock of food grains to meet the situations that may arise as a result of shortfalls. This paper provides a conceptual framework for understanding the market process under the intervention of buffer stock scheme. In the scheme, physical grain reserves is established for the purpose of countering extreme fluctuations in food prices and discouraging excess speculation, as well as meeting emergency needs. A special feature of the model is that the interplay between food production shocks and market speculation plays a decisive role in determining the adequacy of foodgrain buffer stock.

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