犯罪理論之統合分析－以自陳犯罪之研究報告為樣本

Meta-analysis of Criminal Theories: In Terms of Social Evolutionism and Behavior Reinforcement Theory

10.6429/FES.200106.0035

馬信行(Hsen-Hsing Ma)

統合分析後設分析 ； 社會控制論 ； 自我控制論 ； 差別接觸論 ； 緊張理論 ； 犯罪機會理論 ； meta-analysis ； deterrence theory ； criminal opportunity theory ； social control theory ； self-control theory ； strain theory

教育與社會研究

2期（2001 / 06 / 01）

35 - 66

繁體中文

本文將犯罪理論依社會化不良、由於所需資源無法滿止而引起的長期緊張、及犯罪當前的理性抉擇因素加以歸類整理後，從犯罪有關期刊找出有列出與犯罪有相關係數之以自陳犯罪資料爲分析基礎的實証研究爲樣本，用統合分析（或稱後設分析）將相關係數化爲效應量，求出總平均效應量，並檢定真是否顯著的不等於零。結果顯出支持本研究的假設：一個人如果社會化不良，所需之資源愈貧乏（但無法用合法手段獲得），且有適當的目標物，且目標物的有力監督者不在場，且自認犯案後被偵破的機率愈低，則犯案的機率愈高。

This study classifies crime theories into three categories: long-term (poor socialization), mid-term (deprivation of needed resources that could not be acquired through legal ways, and short-term (crime opportunity and low probability of clearance) factors, which have strong relationships with crimes. Empirical research articles, which presented correlation matrix between self-reported crime and its potential causal variables were selected from four criminological journals and then were analyzed by means of meta-analysis. The correlation coefficients were transformed into effect sizes. The average effect size of each potential independent variable was tested by means of t-Test to examine whether it is statistically different from zero. The results support the hypothesis: Under the condition of poor socialization, the stronger the deprivation of the needed resources, that could not be satisfied through legal means, and the suitable target is available, and the capable guardians are absent, and the estimated probability of clearance is low, the higher the probability of emitting a criminal act would be.

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