運用腦力激盪與德爾菲法評估台灣氣候變遷災害的關鍵脆弱性

Using Brainstorm and Delphi to Assess Key Vulnerabilities of Natural Disasters Related to Climate Change in Taiwan

郭彥廉(Yen-Lien Kuo)；李洋寧(Yang-Ning Lee)

氣候變遷調適 ； 脆弱性 ； 德爾菲法 ； 腦力激盪 ； climate change adaptation ； vulnerability ； Delphi ； brain storming

政策研究學報

13期（2014 / 08 / 01）

32 - 47

繁體中文

過去氣候變遷衝擊研究多著重於量化現象或面向的衝擊評估，而未將影響衝擊的重要因素，即關鍵脆弱性，如環境與社經因子納入分析。目前氣候變遷僅有氣象情境摸擬，若再加上環境與社經因素則有高度不確定性。本文由專家學者腦力激盪建立現象與衝擊之關聯架構，再利用專家問卷，確認各種關聯之程度，可呈現多因素與多災害面向之關係。結果可做為擬定調過策略之參考。本研究重要發現包括：1.影響洪災與坡地災害最重要的氣候變遷現象為降雨強度增加，旱災則是平均氣溫上升，海岸災害為海平面上升。此外，侵台颱風強度增加及乾早發生頻率增加與災害有強的關聯。目前全球氣候模型僅提供平均溫度與海平面模擬，故台灣需強化降雨強度與侵台颱風之變化監測及模擬、預測研究；2.加重災害衝擊的環境、社經脆弱性均與土地利用及水資源管理相關，且坡地災害、洪災、旱災有相互加成的效果，整合管理這些面向應是可以考慮的調適策略。

Most climate change impact assessment researches focus on quantifying the impact of a sector and exclude non-climatic, particularly social, vulnerability. It becomes difficult for making national adaptation strategy. However, there are only temperature, precipitation and sea level rise simulations for climate change scenarios and no long-term forecasts for environmental and social vulnerabilities. The brain storming workshop and Delphi technique are used in this paper to find the relations between the climate change, environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities and disaster impacts under such uncertainty. The increase of rainfall intensity; the increase of average temperature and the sea level rise are the most important climate change vulnerabilities to flood and landslide, drought and coastal disasters, respectively. Further research and monitoring are required for the intensity of Taiwan invasion typhoons and the frequency of dry spell which are important vulnerabilities to disasters but tends in Taiwan are not clear. Since the key vulnerabilities are mainly related to water resource and land use management, and flood, drought and landslides disasters are correlated and reinforce to each other, the integrated management of flood, water, land and forest resources is necessary.

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