後社會主義的資本市場：Feldstein-Horioka迷思

Post-Socialist Capital Market: The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle?

Stepan Vinokurov；Anna Medved

Feldstein-Horioka迷思 ； 資本市場 ； 後社會主義轉型 ； The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle ； Capital Market ； Post-Socialist Transformation

亞太經濟管理評論

17卷2期（2014 / 03 / 01）

33 - 46

英文

Feldstein-Horioka迷思泛指的是國際間資本移動存在著高度的限制。我們或許會預期譬如歐盟的經濟整合會終結此一迷思：反之，經濟隔離可能會產生此一迷思。Comecon組織的成員，特別是蘇聯的共和國在過去的數十年間已遭受到共同經濟空間裂解之傷害。然而，我們發現Feldstein-Horioka迷思無法在這些國家之間清楚的觀察到後社會主義轉型的特殊環境因素使得長期投資計畫變得更難以推動。因此，在這些國家的投資面臨限制一但較少，就相對可能更容易去選擇投資方向。因此，Feldstein-Horioka迷思是經濟行為人的特徵且其環境要比資本市場的非整合性更為嚴峻。

The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle is often referred to as evidence of poor capital mobility between countries. We might expect that integrated economies (such as in the EU) would lead to the end of this puzzle. On the contrary, disintegration would be likely to produce this puzzle. The Comecon's members, especially former Soviet republics, have suffered such a destruction of common economic space last several decades. However, we find that the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle is not clearly observable among these countries. The specific circumstances of the post-socialist transformation made it more or less difficult to run long-time investment projects. Therefore, investments in these countries were not constrained in this way and could ＂choose＂ their direction relatively freely. Hence, Feldstein-Horioka puzzle is a characteristic of economic actors and their environment to a greater extent than capital market frictions per se.

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