Weather Derivative: Precipitation Risk and Multiple Rainfall Gages Modeling

氣候衍生性商品：降水風險與多雨量站模式

10.6626/MR.2009.9.03

羅庚辛(Keng-Hsin Lo)；朱孝恩(Shiaw-En Ju)

Thiessen's method ； Feitsui reservoir ； weather derivative

管理研究學報

9卷（2009 / 12 / 01）

75 - 91

英文

This article identifies two types of precipitation-related weather risks, i.e., precipitation event risk and accumulative water volume risk. While the single rainfall-gage model is suitable for dealing with precipitation event risk, it needs modification to produce better hedging effect for the water volume risk. A multiple-gage areal rainfall estimation method is proposed, which is based on Thiessen's method, to account for high variation of rainfall distribution in space. An example of six rainfall gages installed in a watershed is illustrated to show that a multiple rainfall-gage model performs better than a single rainfall-gage model in hedging against water volume risk.