從銷售交易資料探討一般性商品之最適訂購策略

An Optimal Ordering Strategy for General Merchandise under the Observation of Sales Data

10.6626/MR.2012.11(2).02

黃允成(Yun-Cheng Huang)；陳思婷(Sih-Ting Chen)；潘信佐(Shin-Tso Pan)

隨機性需求 ； 前置時間 ； 敏感度分析 ； Stochastic demand ； Lead time ； Sensitivity analysis

管理研究學報

11卷2期（2012 / 05 / 01）

37 - 58

繁體中文

本文主要是針對隨機性需求探討一般性商品之最適訂購策略，因為顧客到達時間具隨機性，且購買的商品也為一隨機變數。在一般商品中，銷售可大略分為三種時段：離峰時段、尖峰時段與假日時段，因為不同的商品其需求量亦不相同，所以我們需要收集顧客交易資料之間隔時間，運用統計原理推導商品之需求分配，並建構一存貨管理模型，再根據最佳化與數值分析方法，找出最適訂購量與再訂購點，使總期望存貨成本最小化，並對參數進行敏感度分析。最後，提出三點結論，作為後續研究與實務應用之參考。

The main propose of this article is to establish optimal ordering strategy for general merchandise under the stochastic demand. Because the customer arrival time is random and the purchasing quantity is also a random variable. For some merchandise, its sales conditions can be partitioned into three periods: peak-time period, off-peak-time period and holidays. Because of the demands for different goods are not the same, so we need to collect the interval time between customers and the transaction data, and then we apply the statistical theory to predict the demand and its distribution. In addition, we build up an inventory model and according to the optimization technique and numerical analysis method, the article can find out the optimal ordering quantity and reorder point to minimize the total expected cost. The sensitivity analysis was taken to realize the influence of parameters. Finally, three conclusions are drawn for practical applications and future studies.

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