题名

Value of Serial PSA Measurements for Prostate Cancer Prediction on Screening Using a Maximum Likelihood Estimation-Prostate Specific Antigen (MLE-PSA) Model

DOI

10.6339/JDS.2013.11(4).1173

作者

Harold S. Haller;J. Stephen Jones;Ayman Moussa;Ahmed El-Shafei;Tanujit Dey

关键词

Logistic regression ; prostate cancer ; PSA ; PSAV ; quality control

期刊名称

Journal of Data Science

卷期/出版年月

11卷4期(2013 / 10 / 01)

页次

639 - 654

内容语文

英文

英文摘要

PSA measurements are used to assess the risk for prostate cancer. PSA range and PSA kinetics such as PSA velocity have been correlated with increased cancer detection and assist the clinician in deciding when prostate biopsy should be performed. Our aim is to evaluate the use of a novel, maximum likelihood estimation - prostate specific antigen (MLE-PSA) model for predicting the probability of prostate cancer using serial PSA measurements combined with PSA velocity in order to assess whether this reduces the need for prostate biopsy.A total of 1976 Caucasian patients were included. All these patients had at least 6 PSA serial measurements; all underwent trans-rectal biopsy with minimum 12 cores within the past 10 years. A multivariate logistic regression model was developed using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the following parameters (age, at least 6 PSA serial measurements, baseline median natural logarithm of the PSA (ln(PSA)) and PSA velocity (ln(PSAV)), baseline process capability standard deviation of ln(PSA) and ln(PSAV), significant special causes of variation in ln(PSA) and ln(PSAV) detected using control chart logic, and the volatility of the ln(PSAV). We then compared prostate cancer probability using MLE-PSA to the results of prostate needle biopsy. The MLE-PSA model with a 50% cut-off probability has a sensitivity of 87%, specificity of 85%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 89%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 82%. By contrast, a single PSA value with a 4ng/ml threshold has a sensitivity of 59%, specificity of 33%, PPV of 56%, and NPV of 36% using the same population of patients used to generate the MLE-PSA model. Based on serial PSA measurements, the use of the MLE-PSA model significantly (p-value < 0.0001) improves prostate cancer detection and reduces the need for prostate biopsy.

主题分类 基礎與應用科學 > 資訊科學
基礎與應用科學 > 統計