商用飛機尾段組裝學習曲線模型運用

The Application of Learning Curve Model for Commercial Aircraft Empennage Assembly

10.7047/LRR.200312.0058

葉忠(Chung Yeh)；鄧向榮(Shiang-roung Ten)

學習曲線 ； 多變數學習曲線模型 ； 商用飛機尾段 ； Learning curve ； Multiplicative power of learning curve model ； Commercial aircraft empennage

運籌研究集刊

4期（2003 / 12 / 01）

58 - 87

繁體中文

本研究應用 “多變數學習曲線模型”，以波音公司B717-200機尾段結構組裝累計100架的工時資料建構商用飛機尾段結構組裝的學習曲線模型，並據以預估未來的工時趨勢，再用後續10架的實際工時來檢驗學習曲線模型所預測的工時。此模型所衡量出之目標工時與實作工時之平均差異率為2.24%，證明本模型的正確性。 學習曲線的學習效率與產量有關；隨生產量增加，學習效果先趨於顯著，然後漸趨於平穩。本研究組裝學習率在95%的信心水準下為89%，當生產總量不變，單位時間內生產率降低時會造成學習率上升。 本模型將不良率與工程修改之工時納入考量的目的；是在於發現產品不良率與工程修改工時均影響學習曲線率，期能對產品工時、成本之預估能提供更正確的資料。作報價與競標的依據，以及編撰營運計畫書提供管理階層作專案之經營與管理。

This research applied “Multiplicative power of learning curve model” to establish a “Learning curve model for commercial aircraft” based on 100 ship sets of actually structural assembly working hours of Boeing B717-200 Empennage. According to the above model, estimate assembly hours for coming up aircraft. Then verify the model by using another lately 10 ship sets of assembly hours. The rate of average difference between estimated goal working hours and actually working hours is 2.24%. This result proves this model is correct. Also in this study the rate of learning curve is 89% for commercial aircraft empennage and the reliability is 95%. This research considered the rate of nonconformity and engineering change, so this model could provide more accurate estimated hours and costs. The result is that learning curve is related to production rate. If the production rate drops, the rate of learning curve would rise. Moreover, the rate of nonconformity and engineering change would affect the rate of learning curve.

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