Estimating Potential Size of Markets Characterized by Three Types of Network Effects

三種網路效應下市場潛在規模之估計

10.29767/ECS.200706.0002

曾繁鎮(Fan-Chen Tseng)；鄧景宜(Ching-I Teng)

網路效應 ； 市場規模 ； 估計 ； 網際網路 ； 通訊系統 ； Network Effects ； Market Size ； Estimation ； Internet ； Communication Systems

Electronic Commerce Studies

5卷2期（2007 / 06 / 30）

133 - 149

英文

文獻中較少提供廠商如何估計具有網路效應的市場的潛在規模，且未見文獻使用多種網路效應來探討此一議題。因此，本研究提出一個模型，在三種（遞增的、穩定的、遞減的）網路效應下，估計三種（接納的、穩定的、抗拒的）市場的規模，發現：(1)接納的與穩定的市場中若有遞增的網路效應，則市場潛在規模將非常大、(2)接納的市場中若有穩定的網路效應，則市場潛在規模亦將非常大、(3)穩定的與抗拒的市場中若有遞減的網路效應，則市場潛在規模將受到限制與(4)抗拒的市場中若有穩定的網路效應，則市場潛在規模將受到限制。

Few studies in the literature of network effects have guided firms to estimate the potential size of a market. No study, as we know, has used various types of network effects in addressing this issue. This paper thus proposes a model for estimating the potential size of markets characterized by three types of network effects-accelerating, stable, and decelerating-in three types of markets: receptive, stable, and resistive. This study found that (1) receptive and stable markets with accelerating network effect will result in a very large market size; (2) receptive markets with stable network effect will also result in a very large market size; (3) stable and resistive markets with decelerating network effect will result in a constrained market size; and (4) resistive markets with stable network effect will also result in a constrained market size.

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