兩岸協商與談判理論之探討

Discussion of the Two Sides across the Taiwan Strait Consultation and the Negotiation Theory

10.30165/JHSS.201006.0007

陳振銘(Jenn-Ming Chen)

協商與談判 ； 智豬論 ； 博奕理論 ； 囚徒困境理論 ； 第三方介入理論 ； Consultation And Negotiation ； Pigs'playoffs ； Game theory ； Prisoner's dilemma theory ； Third party theory

人文與社會學報

2卷6期（2010 / 06 / 01）

161 - 191

繁體中文

協商與談判是門高深的學問，也是一項藝術。其主要目的是針對紛爭或未取得共識之議題，經由雙方相互溝通與協調，共同尋求雙方或多方都能接受的合理解決方案。海峽兩岸目前正處於緩和階段，彼此都在調整互動策略，急需透過協商與談判機制，共創兩岸雙贏新局。 本研究旨在探討尋求適合兩岸協商與談判之相關理論。由於2008年國民黨執政以來，兩岸兩會已舉行多次會談，雙方除有事務性與商務性協商與談判之外，日後，不排除亦可能會觸及軍事性或政治性議題；因此，協商與談判理論之探討，顯得格外重要。 本文運用博奕理論衍生出來之「智猪論」，解釋與模擬兩岸協商與談判可能面臨之狀況，分析兩岸進行折衝過程中，如何在「利益衡量」、「成本估計」及「心理層面」呈現出因應對策。希望有助於瞭解影響兩岸協商與談判之相關國內及國際因素，進而提升協商與談判的策略和技巧，創造有利於兩岸關係發展之協商模式。

The consultation and the negotiation are not only a scholarship, but also an art. It is main purpose is, by having mutual communicating and understanding, to aim at a certain dispute or subject which the mutual recognition still cannot be decided, and to seek for the solution both can accept. This consultative, negotiating mechanism is now being urgently needed for the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, so as to launch a win-win situation to the cross-straits jointly. This research is focused on conferring and questing towards the best suitable consultation and negotiation theory which can be used on the cross-straits. Due to the increasing détente around the cross-strait affairs after May 20th, 2008, except for the transactional and financial consultations and negotiations, even the political affairs may become an option both of the straits might have to approach. This article is trying to explain the current situation the cross-straits are now facing with by using one of the game theory-”Pigs' Playoffs”: that how would the cross-straits deal with their negotiations in response to subdue their rivals; by measuring the advantages, estimating the costs, and concerning the psychological aspects. Therefore, we hope this article may become useful in your understanding of what are the internal/external factors that are affecting the consultations along with the negotiations around the cross-straits, and how could we raise our strategies and skills in a certain consultation and negotiation; so as to initiate an advantageous pattern which gives the best benefit to the cross-straits.

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