金融海嘯與企業財務預警之實證研究－Logit模型之應用

Financial Tsunami and Financial Early-warning Models-Logit Models Application

10.30065/JCER.200909.0002

余惠芳(Hui-Fun Yu)；陳琳(Lin Chen)；劉清山(Cing-Shan Liou)；徐薇茹(Wei-Ru Syu)；林詩巽(Shih-Syun Lin)；鄒惠雯(Huei-Wun Zou)

金融海嘯 ； 預警模型 ； 財務比率 ； 每股盈餘EPS ； Financial Tsunami ； Early-warning Models ； Financial Ratio ； EPS

華人經濟研究

7卷2期（2009 / 09 / 01）

20 - 39

繁體中文

本研究主要係利用統計科學方法建立財務預警模型(Financial early-warning models)，儘可能在公司尚未發生財務危機前，提前預測出公司可能發生財務危機的機率，達到事前預警作用。實證分析上，嘗試利用28個財務比率，K-S tests、M-U tests與logit迴歸模型(Regressions model)比較分析2006~2008年全球金融海嘯期間台灣上市櫃公司之價值。研究發現，不同經濟情況影響公司績效主要指標有財務結構、償債能力、經營能力、獲利能力與現金流量指標。每股盈餘EPS能有效預測公司之經營績效，適當提高負債比率可提高股來權益報酬ROE與公司績效，適度提高股東權益過轉率與資產過轉率可增強公司經營能力。準此，本研究主要焦點意涵在財務風險管理與財務預测。

This paper primarily uses statistical methods to establish financial early-warning models that make it possible to predict in advance the probability of a company experiencing financial distress. In its empirical analysis, this study attempts to use financial ratios , consider 28 variable to analyze 2006-2008 years the public listed data of cupboard company value of Taiwan, and the present study uses the (K-S tests), and (M-U tests) and Logit regressions model. Findings, on different economic situations, influence the achievement result of the company have financial structure, solvency, operating performance, profitability, and cash flow indicators. EPS can predict the achievement result of the company performance. To raise debt ratio can improve ROE and company performance. To raise equity turnover and total assets turnover can increase operating performance. The paper is useful to researchers or practitioners who are focused on financial risk management and financial forecasting.