後ECFA時代中國進口貨品爭端案最適關稅政策分析

The Economic Effects Analysis of Imposition Anti-dumping Duty and National Interests

10.30065/JCER.201203.0006

黃智輝(Chi-Huei Huang)

最適關稅 ； 社會福利 ； 反傾銷 ； COMPAS模型 ； Optimal Tariff Rate ； Social Welfare ； Anti-dumping ； COMPAS Model

華人經濟研究

10卷1期（2012 / 03 / 01）

111 - 129

繁體中文

課徵反傾銷稅是政府為維護公平貿易與穩定國內產業發展對以低於正常價格銷售之不公平貿易行為所採行的重要工具，然反傾銷案件產業損害認定方法迄今在世界貿易組織（World Trade Organization，WTO）的規範中並無明確規範，以致各國在衡量產業損害的指標上亦不盡相同，故常常引起爭論。本研究以台灣毛巾產業為研究對象，針對反傾銷案件成立後，業者提訴反傾銷案件之影響效果，及業者提訴反傾銷案件對整體產業經濟效果，並採美國國際貿易委員會（United States International Trade Commission，USITC）商業政策分析系統（Commercial Policy Analysis System，COMPAS），模擬估算政府採行反傾銷課稅後之國內產業損害因素，觀察實證分析結果，課徵反傾銷稅後對該產業所造成之經濟福利變化。本研究結果發現毛巾課徵反傾銷稅後，國內銷售價格、生產量、廠商收益、市場占有率、設備利用率等皆增加呈現正面效果；傾銷產品市場進口量、進口價格、市場占有率則等皆下跌呈現負面效果，表示課徵反傾銷稅對國內毛巾產業產生正面實質的保護效果。未來是否繼續課徵對於社會資源之配置必須考量國家整體利益及最適關稅之間取得平衡點，爭取國家最大福利。

The imposition of anti-dumping duty is a significant approach for the government to secure trade and stabilize the development of domestic industry under unfair trade behavior at lower price. Nevertheless, there are no clear measures to identify industrial injury under WTO current system, so this result in the difference explanation to recognize the industrial damage among countries. The research discusses the industry effects and economic benefits of towel industry after the imposition of anti-dumping duty. The research adopts of Commercial Policy Analysis System (COMPAS) from United States International Trade Commission (USITC) to forecast and simulate the industry effects on imposition of anti-dumping duty, and analyze the effects brought to the changes in social welfare. In summary, the imposition of anti-dumping duty of towel industry creates positive protective effects on domestic sales price, production volume, company revenue, and market share. Public interests need to be accounted into consideration; and finding the balance on the imposition anti-dumping and the most optimal tariff; and the interests of domestic industries is essential to achieve the maximum national welfare.