企業赴大陸直接投資對兩岸貿易影響－以台灣傳統產業為例

The Impact Analysis between FDI in China and Cross-Strait Trade-Evidence from Taiwan's Traditional Industry

柯勝揮(Sheng-Huei Ko)；柯勝揮(Bo-Jyun Chen)

傳統產業 ； 兩岸經濟合作架構協議 ； 赴大陸直接投資 ； 層級迴歸分析 ； Traditional Industry ； ECFA ； FDI ； Hierarchical Regression Analysis

華人經濟研究

13卷1期（2015 / 03 / 01）

157 - 171

繁體中文

本研究以層級回歸模型探討傳統產業赴大陸投資與兩岸傳統產業貿易之關聯性，並加入簽訂ECFA前後作為虛擬變數，探討ECFA對兩岸傳統產業貿易之影響。研究結果顯示：一、台灣傳統產業赴大陸投資對出口、進口與總貿易均為互補關係。二、簽訂ECFA後，傳統產業出口至大陸為顯著負向關係；而簽定ECFA後，自大陸進口則呈現顯著正向關係；至於對兩岸貿易總體則呈現負向不顯著關係。

This study research the relationship between Taiwan's traditional industry direct investment in china and cross-strait traditional industry trade by using Hierarchical regression analysis with the signing of ECFA as a dummy variable to analysis the effect of ECFA. Empirical results reveal the following statement: 1. Taiwan's traditional industry investment will complement the export, import and overall trade between Taiwan and china. 2. It has a significant negative relationship after signing ECFA on export trade; it has a significant positive relationship after signing ECFA on import trade; it has a negative but not significant relationship after signing ECFA on cross-strait trade.