Policy Change or Policy Intractability in Post-Crisis Landscape?-The Fukushima Explosion and Comparative Nuclear Energy Policy

災變事件後政策的變遷或停滯？福島核災與比較核能政策

10.29865/PAP.201306_(56).0004

簡赫琳(Her-Lin Chien)

災變 ； 政策變遷 ； 政策學習 ； 核能政策 ； 敘事政策分析法（NPA） ； crisis ； policy change ； policy learning ； nuclear energy policy ； narrative policy analysis (NPA)

行政暨政策學報

56期（2013 / 06 / 01）

117 - 145

英文

許多學者研究發現，災變是許多爭議性高之政策變遷的催化劑，但除此之外，災變究竟如何影響政策制訂方向還未被仔細檢驗，例如：不同國家之政策制定者面對相同的災變，其政策回應到底是相同還是不同？本研究使用敘事政策分析法（NPA）來比較多國在2011年福島核災後核能政策走向的相異，共有六國在本研究中被分析：美國、法國、印度、瑞士、台灣與義大利，前三國在災後並沒有顯著核能政策變遷，後三國則在災後經歷核能政策改變。此研究發現，災變並不總像過去研究發現的必為政策帶來變遷，許多政策縱使在經過災變後仍是停滯，政策學習也不一定是必然。

Many scholars argue that a crisis can serve as a catalyst to prompt a previously controversial policy change. However, many of the effects of a crisis on policy changes or policy intractability remain uninvestigated. Do policy-makers in different countries react similarly or differently to the same crisis? This paper uses a narrative policy analysis to conduct comparative case studies to examine how the 2011 Fukushima nuclear explosion affected nuclear energy policies in different polities. Six cases are selected: the United States, France, India, Switzerland, Taiwan and Italy. Whereas the first three countries listed do not exhibit nuclear policy changes in the post-crisis landscape, the latter three have experienced a policy reversal. This research finds that crises do not always serve as a catalyst to induce policy changes as conventional wisdom predicts. Many policies exhibit its intractability even after a major crisis whereas policy learning is not automatic neither.

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