歐元的全球角色：機會與限制

The Euro's Global Role: Opportunities and Limitations

10.29865/PAP.201312_(57).0003

羅至美(Chih-Mei Luo)

歐元 ； 全球角色 ； 貨幣治理 ； 經濟決定因素 ； 地緣政治與體制因素 ； the euro ； global role ； monetary governance ； economic determinants ； geopolitical politics and institutional factors

行政暨政策學報

57期（2013 / 12 / 01）

91 - 128

繁體中文

本文的目的旨在檢視歐元的全球角色與其未來的發展展望。檢視國際使用現狀，歐元在創建的第一個十年中，已成為全球最重要的區域貨幣，此一區域優勢是否可進一步成長為全面性的全球貨幣？需視其在經濟與非經濟決定因素上的優劣勢。就經濟性指標而言，隨著未來歐元區的擴大以及此所伴隨的經濟規模與貿易力量擴張的趨勢、單一金融市場可望漸次實現、網絡外部性對新貨幣興起的限制性降低、以及貨幣穩定性等有利因素而言，歐元的全球角色發展應是偏向成長的有利方向。就非經濟決定要素而言，政治與體制性因素形成歐元國際化的主要限制。歐元若未能籍由全球金融危機與歐債危機的處理經驗，克服並改善其在體制上的內部治理缺陷，輔以歐盟官方立場的干預推動，歐元的全球角色將難見大幅躍升。

This paper aims to analyze the global role of the euro and its prospects. Reviewing its international use, the euro has become the most important regional currency in its first decade. Whether this regional advantage can further develop into a full-scale international currency depends on its strength and weakness in economic and noneconomic determinants. By economic criteria, with the favorable conditions such as the enlargement of the euro area and the following expansion of its economic and trading area; the gradual implementation of the single market in financial sector; the less constraints of the network externalities on the rise of new currencies, and currency stability the economic prospect seems more inclined to the euro's favor. The major constraints to the internationalization of the euro derive from non-economic determinants-political and institutional factors. Unless the lessons of the crisis management revealed in the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis can be learn and weakness in monetary governance can be improved accordingly, accompanying with the official intervention and promotion, it would be difficult to witness any significant advance in the euro's global role in the foreseeable future.

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